Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Memphis, TN

May 4, 2003Dunklin County, Missouri

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 4, 2003, 8:00 PM CDT for Dunklin County, Missouri. It was in force for 15 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2003, 8:00 PM CDT (01:00 UTC)
Expired: May 4, 2003, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 15 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Dunklin County, MO

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 4, 6:55 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2245 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 658 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 254 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 313 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 4.4
Supercell composite: 14.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

309 
WUUS54 KMEG 050100
SVRMEM
MOC069-050115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
800 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 755 PM CDT...WEATHER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6   
MILES SOUTHWEST OF KENNETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH. THREE 
QUARTER IN HAIL WAS REPORTED IN SENATH.

.A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

.DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES AND INFORMATION. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4
3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3639 8997 3616 8997 3616 9008 3623 9012

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 4, 2:49 PM CDT, 5 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 4, 2:49 PM CDT, 5 hours 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

QUIET WEATHER CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-SOUTH WHICH SHOULD NOT LAST
LONG. SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH DRY-LINE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND DRY-LINE MOVES EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION. SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY BUT RETREAT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
MEM 69/82/69/82/67 745
MKL 68/81/67/81/66 755
JBR 67/82/65/81/65 733
TUP 69/81/67/83/68 666

.MEG...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 4, 3:35 PM CDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...MUCH OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY WEST OF
A LINE FROM PITTSBORO TO PARIS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING...HOWEVER SOME TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SET UP MONDAY
AND LAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ANOTHER BATCH OF SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 4, 6:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

MOZ113-050015-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...DUNKLIN COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 20 MILES WEST OF KENNETT AT 625 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN DUNKLIN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CAMPBELL AND
KENNETT...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 7:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Dunklin	24 min
May 4, 7:09 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Dunklin	51 min
May 4, 7:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Pemiscot	49 min
May 4, 9:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Pemiscot	43 min
May 5, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin	47 min
May 5, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Pemiscot	46 min
May 5, 5:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Dunklin, Pemiscot	30 min
May 5, 5:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MEG	Dunklin, Pemiscot	26 min
May 5, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Pemiscot	48 min
May 5, 6:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dunklin	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.