Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
134 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR A IND-STL-ICT LINE AT MID-DAY. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WOULD
PROBABLY BE TO THE NORTH OF A SAVANNAH-JACKSON-JONESBORO LINE. A
LITTLE HIGHER POPS THERE...AREAL COVERAGE AT MID-AFTERNOON WILL
DETERMINE THE ACTUAL VALUE.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER THE AREA FOR 24-36 HOURS...AT
LEAST. WHILE THERE WILL BE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF...
GFS SOLUTION FOR 48-72 HOURS WRT IMPULSE STRENGTH IS QUESTIONABLE.
THIS MEANS THAT MAV POPS FOR WEDNESDAY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
JUSTIFIED. POPS IN CHANCE RANGE FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
OK. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE A DIURNAL MAX/MIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO AREA BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST MENTIONING PRECIP FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
RANGE BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT. SINCE UPPER FLOW
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THESE...WILL KEEP MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. SUNDAY/MONDAY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LESS...AND WILL KEEP
THAT DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES...SEE NO NEED TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES FROM WHAT IS
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. OF COURSE...LOCATION OF CONVECTION WILL
MAKE OR BREAK FORECAST.

.MEG...NONE.

WAGNER

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-291000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY PRODUCING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SJM

ARZ009-MOZ113-282330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CLAY AND DUNKLIN COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ST. FRANCIS AT 617 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN CLAY AND DUNKLIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
CAMPBELL...KENNETT...MALDEN AND PIGGOTT...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

TNZ002-290045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...OBION COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLAYTON IN
FULTON COUNTY KENTUCKY AT 710 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN OBION COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF UNION CITY...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

TNZ021-290215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
832 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...CARROLL COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VALE TO 5 MILES NORTH OF ATWOOD AT 829 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

THIS LINE OF STORMS IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE. WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF HUNTINGDON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.