Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
230 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT TAKING PLACE AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE BOUNDARY AND THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO
FIRE UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE EVERYWHERE TODAY.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WILL GO LIKELY EVERYWHERE.

WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED TO OUR NORTH.  WILL GO
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP
CHANCE GOING IN NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE
CWA ON FRIDAY...WILL KEEP CHANCE EVERYWHERE.  THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
OUT FRIDAY NIGHT...KEEPING LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF CWA.

ON SATURDAY...THE CWA WILL BETWEEN BOUNDARIES.  WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW. A BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT PERIODS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
MEM 84/70 84/70 86 37431
MKL 82/69 82/67 85 47532
JBR 82/68 83/66 85 37332
TUP 84/70 84/69 87 57631

.MEG...NONE

KRS

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
820 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HELENA TO IUKA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WARM
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID SOUTH.
SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE TONIGHT. SOME TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE REST OF THE MID SOUTH
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY THEN RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH THURSDAY. WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
COVER THE MID SOUTH AND CAUSE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE THROUGH DAY SEVEN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0518 PM    KENNETT                   MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   DUNKLIN                        REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0540 PM    YARBRO                    AR   TORNADO
05/05/03   MISSISSIPPI                    TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR
                                          YARBRO. REPORTED BY
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0555 PM    CLARKSDALE                MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   COAHOMA                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0638 PM    4E FRIENDSHIP             TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   CROCKETT                       TREES AND POWERLINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          CROCKETT COUNTY EMA.

0700 PM    PONTOTOC                  MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   PONTOTOC                       REPORTED BY PONTOTOC
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE.

0700 PM    PONTOTOC                  MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/05/03   PONTOTOC                       TREES AND POWERLINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          SPOTTER.

0715 PM    GIBSON                    TN   TORNADO
05/05/03   GIBSON                         TOUCHDOWN IN THE CITY OF
                                          GIBSON. REPORTED BY
                                          GIBSON COUNTY EMA.

0722 PM    TUPELO                    MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   LEE(MS)                        REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0726 PM    CLARKSDALE                MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   COAHOMA                        REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0730 PM    HUMBOLDT                  TN   TORNADO
05/05/03   GIBSON                         TORNADO ON HWY 45 NEAR
                                          GIBSON-MADISON COUNTY
                                          BORDER. REPORTED BY
                                          AMBULANCE SERVICE.

0745 PM    WEBB                      MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   TALLAHATCHIE                   REPORTED BY TALLAHATCHIE
                                          COUNTY EMA.

0745 PM    WEBB                      MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   TALLAHATCHIE                   REPORTED BY TALLAHATCHIE
                                          COUNTY EMA.

0800 PM    2S MILAN                  TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   GIBSON                         TWO TREES DOWN AND HOME
                                          DAMAGED. REPORTED BY
                                          AMBULANCE SERVICE.

0855 PM    CALHOUN CITY              MS   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   CALHOUN                        TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE IN
                                          CALHOUN CITY. REPORTED BY
                                          CALHOUN COUNTY EMA.