Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
903 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2003

COLD FRONT THRU KMAF WITH 3HR PRESSURE RISES INCREASING TO ARND 2
MB/3HR ACRS THE N. ATTM TSTMS FORMING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT JUST
E...BUT IR STARTING TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING FARTHER W-SW. 00Z
RUC STILL SUPPORTS ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN E PB WHERE STRONG WAA
DEVELOPS IN 85H-8H LAYER. AS SUCH HAVE KEPT CHC POPS E/CENTRAL/S AND
DECREASED POPS. WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING THRU GDP AND WILL LEAVE NPW
POSTED THERE FOR LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY AM. WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE AS
CLOUDS/DECREASING DWPNTS/PRECIP/CAA MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MAKE
CONFIDENT CHANGES. ZIS.

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS GOOD PUSH ON WEST SIDE AND RACED INTO EDDY AND LEA
COUNTY BY 16Z THIS MORNING.  AS OF 18Z FRONT NEAR A WINK TO LAMESA
LINE AND HEADING SOUTH... BUT MAY BE SLOWING.  MAV GUIDANCE REACTING
TO STRONG FRONT BY RAISING PRECIP CHANCE TONIGHT.  ETA AND MESO ETA
NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH PRECIP AS MAV AND TENDS TO KEEP IT EAST.  WILL
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BUT KEEP IN CHANCE CATEGORY.  AS FAR AS
TEMPS LASTEST GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH PAST RUNS... LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED.  LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP HIGH WINDS OUT OF GDP
TIL AFTER 00Z... WILL HAVE TO CONITINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF
TONIGHTS HIGH WIND WARNING NEEDS TO BE MOVED UP A FEW HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY COOL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE MESOETA AND GFS BOTH KEEP 85H
TEMPS IN THE 11C-14C RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THICK CLOUD COVER
COMBINED WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON
MAXES VERY COOL...PERHAPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST ON SUNDAY.
THE BEST INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA...SO WILL TREND TOWARDS HIGHER POPS SOUTH WHILE MAINTAINING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH.

A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
IN. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN GOING ACROSS ALL AREAS AS THE
ETA SHOWS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295K AND 300K LAYERS.

A WARM UP WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE AND THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CLEARING TREND ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
QUITE NICE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MAF 59 68 56 81 / 40 40 20 10
CNM 57 69 56 84 / 20 20 20 10
MRF 56 70 51 78 / 30 40 20 10
FST 62 71 59 82 / 40 40 20 10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT GUADALUPE PASS TXZ258.
.NM...NONE.

72/21

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GUADALUPE PASS TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF A HOBBS TO
FORT STOCKTON LINE.  A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION TONIGHT.