Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
258 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. UPPER AIR ANALYSES ALONG WITH WV SAT LOOP
REVEAL A STRONG JET ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO PACKING SOME COOL AIR AS A COUPLE OF
SITES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES HAVE BEEN
REPORTING SNOW THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR
OUR AREA. WE EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN CWA GIVEN ADEQUATE MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND 7H-5H
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5C/KM. MULTICELL STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING AND A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL/STRONG WINDS
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND INVERTED-V FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET CRANKS UP AND MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH NEARS THE AREA. IN GENERAL...THE CURRENT POP STRUCTURE LOOKS
GOOD AND WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZFP. WIND
GRIDS GENERALLY LOOK FINE...EXCEPT OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
WHERE WE ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MIN TEMPS WERE ALSO RAISED GIVEN PROGGED DEW POINTS/CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL ON UPPER LVL LOW CURRENTLY OVR WY...
AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED PAC FRONT EXTENDING FM SW AZ...TO CNTRL CO...TO
WRN ND.  AS SUCH...FRONT SHOULD BE THRU SE NM BY MID AFTERNOON THU...
BUT STILL THINK MODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING IT A BIT ON TIMING.  WILL
CONTINUE CONCENTRATING BEST CHANCES IN THE SE ZONES ALONG WHERE
FRONT MAY SLOW A BIT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  H85 TEMP PROGS
INDICATE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING TEMPS THU TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE PRODUCTS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON
JUST HOW CLOSE.  WILL USE A BLEND...GOING ON H85 ETA PROGS...WHICH
INITIALIZED WELL.

AS FRONT EXITS SE THU EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TAPERING OFF NW-SE. BELIEVE FRONT WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO YANK POPS
FM THE 4TH PD...AND WILL KEEP FRI DRY UNDER GOOD SUBSIDENCE AS TROUGH
AXIS PASSES.  ZONAL FLOW ENSUES FRI-SAT...BEFORE A SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FA AND BACKDOORS ANOTHER FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A MORE POTENT FRONT...AND SHOULD RESULT
IN THE COOLEST TEMPS FOR THE AREA SINCE LAST SPRING...ABOUT MID 70S
FOR KMAF.  CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT
BETWEEN GFS MODEL RUNS...HAVE INCREASE POPS SUN BY 10 PCT.

GRADUAL WARMUP SHOULD FOLLOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  MRF HINTS AT
BRINGING A WEAK TROUGH N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT...BUT THE EURO IS
MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE.  GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT...WILL KEEP
REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MAF 71 83 60 77 / 40 40 10 00
CNM 63 83 54 81 / 30 20 10 00
MRF 57 81 49 73 / 30 30 20 00
FST 71 87 58 78 / 30 40 20 00

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TX...NONE.
.NM...NONE.

&&

06/44

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-111000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...PERMIAN
BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

PLATT