Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

18Z DEW POINTS NOT AS HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...BUT
CERTAINLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS AROUND WITH NEAR 65F AT DRYDEN TO
NEAR 55F AT KGDP. THE LATEST VIS SAT LOOP SHOWS CU DEVELOPING FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO...WHILE THE WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL LOW OVER WRN OK.

CU OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AREA OF 700-500MB LAPSE
RATES IN THE 8.0-8.5C/KM RANGE PER 12Z ABQ SOUNDING AND SHORT RANGE
MODEL PROGS. INITIALLY...THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. MODELS THEN SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN
LATE TONIGHT. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SEVERE OVER MUCH OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ADVERTISED IN THE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS. THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM APPROPRIATE FOR THE CWA.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST (WED-SAT)...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL CONSIST OF A WEST COAST TROUGH...CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WITH A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE MS VALLEY. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS ADVERTISED
IN THE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER EXTENDED MODELS OFFER
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE SHOWING A DEEPER WEST COAST
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS ARE SHOWING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER
SRN CA. SKILL SCORES FROM THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE INDICATE THE GFS
HAS PERFORMED BETTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHILE WEEK TWO SCORES SHOW
THE ECMWF HAS PULLED AHEAD. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST WITH TEMPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.

PRELIMINARY CCF...

MAF BB 063/086 063/088 064 06522
CNM BB 065/090 064/089 063 06322
MRF BB 058/088 057/086 056 06322
FST BB 065/088 064/088 066 06422

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

PLATT

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-150930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
210 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...GENERALLY EAST OF A PINE
SPRINGS...MARFA...LAJITAS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.

CL

TXZ075-082-151000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 500 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

PECOS AND TERRELL

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...

BAKERSFIELD...DRYDEN...FORT STOCKTON...SANDERSON AND SHEFFIELD

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL 3/4 OF AN INCH OR
GREATER AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE IN OR NEAR TO THE
WATCH AREA...CHECK PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR SEVERE
WEATHER IS OBSERVED.