Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
225 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE NEXT IN SERIES
OF STRONG SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS. ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SO FAR WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THE RECOVERING STAGES FROM LAST NIGHTS EPISODE. BELIEVE THE FURTHER
SOUTH GFS QPF PLAUSIBLE AS DECENT HEATING IS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. IN ADDITION A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
WILL DEVELOP A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT TONIGHT THAT SHOULD HELP PROPAGATE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD AS WELL. WE WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BASIN AS THIS AREA WILL BE TARGETED
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS...THIS AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER IN THE LAST
WEEK WITH DECENT RAINFALL. WILL ALSO MENTION SEVERE WORDING PER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.

REGION WILL REMAINED MOIST AND UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL
AS AHEAD OF IT IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOME ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SPARK SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH FRONT IN THE AREA AND INSTABILITY IN UPSLOPE
FLOW.

COULD BE A BREATHER MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. THE ETA IS QUICKER
WITH THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS REASONABLE
GIVEN THE PATTERN LATELY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT POP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IN GOOD CONVERGENCE AND NO CAP. WILL SPREAD POPS SOUTHWARD
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH IN GOOD CONVERGENCE
AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY.

WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH YET MORE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID
LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL TAKE SHAPE...
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE
COOL ENOUGH FOR CONVERGENCE TO BREAK THE CAP DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS.

WILL GO DRY THURSDAY AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY.

MAF  064/083 062/089 064 1262-
CNM  061/084 062/092 064 1252-
MRF  057/080 054/084 054 12322
FST  065/085 065/091 065 1252-

.MAF...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
     TXZ045>048-050>053-061>063-069>070.
NM...NONE.

12

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
330 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
EVENING.  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE SOUTH INTO WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT.  THIS COMPLEX WILL THEN MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLASH FLOODING THREATEN YOUR AREA. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

PLEASE REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /WGUS64 KMAF/ ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf.