Severe Thunderstorm Warning 509, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDED INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE CLOUDS WERE OVER THE STATE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BREAKS WERE SEEN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.
INSTABILITY IS THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...BUT WITH BREAKS IN CLOUDS...CAP WILL GRADUALLY ERODE AWAY.
AS SUCH...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 9 PM FOR
EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...NORTHWEST PORTIONS WILL SEE A DRASTIC COOL DOWN.

HAVE TAPERED POPS TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST...AS FRONT WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF AREA BY SUNRISE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS. HAVE ENDED
RAINFALL BY AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY...WITH CLOUDS DECREASING RAPIDLY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS IN 50S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE TO THE NORTH...SO ONLY LOW
CHANCE POPS WARRANTED.

HRO   37  45  26  46 / 100  40   5   0
LIT   47  51  29  50 /  80  60  10   0
HOT   45  50  30  51 /  80  40  10   0
PBF   49  53  30  52 /  80  70  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-231100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 PM CST MON DEC 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW ALONG THE RED RIVER AND WILL ALSO
ADVANCE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH ARKANSAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH RAIN CHANCES ALSO
INCREASING STATEWIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF
ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY. RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND
THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

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