Severe Thunderstorm Warning 507, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
346 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF THE SHOWERS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MY COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BUT THE TIMING WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE FOR THE SWITCH OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW. AT THE PRESENT TIME WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW AROUND HARRISON EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL SEE COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY BUT NO
SNOW.

FCSTID =   38
HRO   29  38  26  46 /  50  40  10   0
LIT   35  45  28  50 /  60  10  10   0
HOT   35  45  28  50 /  60  10  10   0
PBF   39  49  29  52 /  80  10  10   0

.LZK...
AR...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-
VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL-
210 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED IN EXTREME NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL CLIP NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE HEADING
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT
WAS JUST ABOUT TO ENTER ARKANSAS FROM THE WEST AT 2 PM. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND COVERED ABOUT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

THE STORMS WERE HAVING DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WAS DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY. CLOUDS WERE
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH READINGS IN MOST AREAS ONLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S AS OF 2 PM. HOWEVER...READINGS HAD JUMPED INTO
THE LOWER 70S IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER
INSTABILITY RESULTING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE.

AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...OR IN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF EL
DORADO...PINE BLUFF AND WEST MEMPHIS. IN THESE AREAS...THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...SHOULD STORMS BECOME SEVERE...THERE MAY BE
LARGE HAIL PRODUCED. IT APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED.

PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINLY FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY SHOULD PICK UP AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE STATE AND
ENCOUNTERS MORE UNSTABLE AIR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GREATEST FROM LITTLE ROCK EASTWARD...WHERE SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR EXPECTED TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES...AND RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EXTREME NORTHERN ARKANSAS. LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS IN THE FORECAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH WILL DEPART TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED INTO THIS
EVENING...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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