Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
945 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

...UPDATE THIS EVENING...

CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE BUT GRIDS/ZONES WILL NEED TO
UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM STILL HOLDING ON. MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF THE STATE. CURRENT THINKING IS MOST WILL MISS THE CWA BUT
IT WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT APPEAR TO BE STAYING
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. MAIN DYNAMICS/WIND ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH OF THE STATE
GIVING FRONT LITTLE PUSH. DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH/EAST OF LITTLE ROCK...WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FCSTID =   56

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
728 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD
FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT THEN PUSH FARTHER INTO THE STATE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT. ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

51