Severe Thunderstorm Warning 431, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
930 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

...UPDATED THE ZONES TO TAKE OUT REFERENCES TO MID MORNING...

LAST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DISSIPATED OVER NRN AR DURG THE PAST
HOUR. POORLY DEFINED SFC BNDRY STILL INDCD OVER SRN MO. SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BNDRYS ARE MEANDERING OVER NRN AND CNTRL AR ATTM AND MAY
PLAY A ROLE IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE FORMATION LATER TODAY.

ACTIVE NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO CONT ACRS AR FOR
THE SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF SHRTWVS WL CONT TO DROP SEWD AND AFFECT
THE FA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. ONCE AGAIN...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
EACH SHRTWV ALWAYS DIFFICULT WITH THIS PATTERN. CONT TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ETA SOLUTION WHICH FOCUSES MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION OVER NRN AND
ERN AR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.

EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO LATER
TODAY/EARLY TNGT AND PROPAGATE SEWD INTO NRN AR OVERNIGHT. HAVE
PLACED HIGHEST POPS OVER MY NRN ZNS...WITH LESSER CHCS FURTHER
SOUTH. EXPECT STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE MRNG HRS ON TUE BEFORE THEY
WEAKEN. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH
PWS PROGGED FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.

HAVE TRENDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AVN MOS TEMPS FOR THE SHORT
TERM WITH LINGERING RAIN CHCS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ARND.

IN THE EXTENDED...LONGER RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A CDFNT WORKING
THRU THE FA DURG MIDWEEK. LATEST CANADIAN SOLUTION ABT 12 TO 24 HRS
SLOWER WITH FROPA...SHOWING IT THRU THE FA ON THU. MEANWHILE...UPR
RDG STILL PROGGED TO BUILD SLOLY EWD FOR LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS AND LTL IF ANY RAIN CHCS. ONLY SOME MINOR
TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPS IN THE GRIDS. OTRW...FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.  ..44..

.LZK...NONE.

32

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN ARKANSAS...WHILE OTHERS WILL ENTER THE STATE FROM
KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI. A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY REACHING CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS MORE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AS WELL. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...AGAIN WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

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