Severe Thunderstorm Warning 361, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CWA. CAP APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FARTHER TO THE WEST. MODELS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE ACTION IN THE EAST. CAP HAS A BETTER CHANCE
OF HOLDING IN THE WEST. BIG PROBLEM WITH ALL THIS IS THAT AREAS
AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY
AND WILL LIKELY NOT WARM UP AS MUCH. THESE AREAS WILL STAY BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THIS IN THE EAST
BUT STILL A QUESTION ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS. LOOKS LIKE WESTERN
ZONES MAY NOT BE AFFECTED AND WILL HEAT UP AS MUCH AS THEY DID
YESTERDAY. WILL GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR THE WEST.
DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR OTHER AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST...MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING.
POPS WILL DROP TO 20 PERCENT IN THE WEST. MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SHOULD BE INTO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT.
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT WITH
WEAK SHORT WAVES AND DIFFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT IN CASE NEW THUNDERSTORMS
DO DEVELOP. BOUNDARY MAY MOVE NORTH SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AGAIN. MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE
NORTH WILL MEET HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD BE
DISRUPTED IF ANY NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES FORM TONIGHT. THIS ALONG
WITH DIFFERING AREAS BEING AFFECTED BY A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY
COMPARED WITH TODAY WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF A HEAT ADVISORY IN
THE ZONES FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT THE WEST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY. THE WEST MAY STILL BE CAPPED SO WILL
KEEP POPS LOWER THERE. INCREASING AMPLITUDE IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA ON MONDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SHOULD CONTINUW UNTIL THEN. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO EXTENDED.

.LIT...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY WEST   ZONES  21-22-30-37-38-40>42-52>54

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