Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1150 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING ACROSS AREA THIS
MORNING. STORMS HAVE BEEN ELEVATED WITH MOST INTENSITY IN 10 TO 20
THOUSAND FOOT RANGE BUT WEAKER RETURNS AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. WARM
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS AND MAY DO ITS
USUAL TRICK OF MOVING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS BUT NOT MOVING
MUCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. LOCATION OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CRITICAL FOR DETERMINING ANY SEVERE THREAT.

WILL MAKE MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
70 TO 72 DEW POINTS REACHING INTO EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE CLOSE CALL WHETHER FRONT CLEARS THE
LITTLE ROCK AREA OR NOT AND WILL KEEP FORECAST FOR THAT AREA ABOUT
THE SAME. SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THAT
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE COOL AIR. WILL KEEP MAX FORECASTS IN
THAT AREA ABOUT THE SAME ALTHOUGH IT MAY END UP TOO WARM.

WILL LEAVE POPS THE SAME FOR NOW. AREA OF STORMS IN CENTRAL SECTIONS
HAS WARMED ON IR PICTURES INDICATING WEAKENENING. STILL A TOUGH
CALL WHETHER NEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE FRONT OR WHETHER ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL
BE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THIS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD END BY LATE TONIGHT.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THE
RAIN WILL BE ENHANCED AS A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...MOVES NORTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RETURN TO THE ARKANSAS AREA TODAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT FAVOR TORNADOS AT THIS TIME. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
THE BEST CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN THIS TIME WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TRACKING ACROSS
ARKANSAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.