Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CST THU MAR 13 2003

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE CWA
AT ISSUE TIME SEEMS TO BE MOVING SLOWER THAN PROGGED. ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN ALONG LEADING EDGE AND THESE HAVE SHOWN
WEAKENING TREND. THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. FAIRLY GOOD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS BEHIND THIS.
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...WILL GO WITH 40 PERCENT POPS IN THE NORTH
FOR THIS MORNING AND 60 PERCENT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
RAIN SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT
WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA AND COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS. SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO KEEP SOME POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
BUT IT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO NOT AFFECT THIS AREA.
DRIER AIR WILL TAKE OVER AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY POPS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. WILL GENERALLY GO BETWEEN MAV AND FWC NUMBERS FOR TEMP
FORECASTS BUT WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE COOLER MAV AS
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT WARMING. A STRONGER
TROF APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE SUNDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO STRATUS AND MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF POPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER TROF PASSES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH
SURFACE LOW WELL BELOW 1000 MB AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OVER
5600 METERS...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT ALTHOUGH
IT DOES NOT LOOK AS FORBODING AS IT DID A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1115 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARDS ARKANSAS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT ...MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF CLARKSVILLE AND BATESVILLE. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT FOR A CONTINUING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING THE
STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH TRANQUIL
WEATHER RETURNING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT MAINLY IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS.

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