Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

MCS ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON KLZK RADAR
EXTENDS WEST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO FORT SMITH. THIS AREA
WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST. THE RAIN IS MOST DOMINANT IN THE 60+ DEW
POINT AREA ACROSS EAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST ARKANSAS.

GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS FOR
TONIGHT. DIVERGING HEIGHTS ARE NOTED ACROSS NORTH ARKANSAS AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY. 60+ DEW POINTS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AT THIS TIME. A WARM FRONT STILL SOUTH OF ARKANSAS WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE TO NEAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY INTO NORTH ARKANSAS.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK CREATING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LAST STRONG
SYSTEM IN THE LINE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY. WITH THE NUMBER OF STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT...WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS WEEK FOR HIGHS AND
50S AND 60S FOR LOWS. STAYED CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS.

HRO   59  79  55  78 /  60  60  60  40
LIT   64  84  65  83 /  60  60  60  40
HOT   64  85  65  83 /  60  60  60  40
PBF   65  86  65  85 /  60  60  60  40

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND MOVED
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO THIS EVENING...AND SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF ARKANSAS...AND WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0344 PM    7 NW CLARKSVILLE          AR   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/13/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER
                                          ON HIGHWAY 103. ALSO WINDS
                                          IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
418 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0355 PM    CLARKSVILLE               AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/13/03   JOHNSON                        LARGE LIMBS DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY STORM SPOTTER

0410 PM    BOONEVILLE                AR   75 MPH TSTM WIND GUST.
05/13/03   LOGAN                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER

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