Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD STALL MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS ON MONDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT BEST
CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH
WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER IN THE
STATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS GENERALLY
RAIN-FREE...BUT NEW FRONT WILL APPROACH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

HRO   62  80  57  76 /  60  20  30  40
LIT   65  82  61  80 /  60  30  40  50
HOT   65  82  61  80 /  60  30  40  50
PBF   68  83  65  82 /  60  50  40  50

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
151 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WAS
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WAS IN
NORTH KANSAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY...IT WILL MOVE INTO THE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN FORMING IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE
CHANGING WITH HEIGHT...WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR THE
GROUND AND A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE A
TURNING MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN SOME
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM AROUND MOUNTAIN
HOME TO TEXARKANA. AFTER SOME LEFTOVER MORNING PRECIPITATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SEVERAL SYSTEMS FROM THE PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT
TO TRIGGER A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

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