Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR A
LINE FROM PINE BLUFF...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE HAVE BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG
INDICATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ALTHOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE APPEARS TO BE WEAK...THE
FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS SCATTERED CONVECTION.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED VORTEX APPROACHING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. AN ASSOCIATED...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...AND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS.

HRO   53  76  59  83 /   0  20  40  40
LIT   58  80  62  83 /  10  20  40  30
HOT   58  81  64  84 /  10  20  30  40
PBF   62  82  64  84 /  30  20  30  30

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING. A SYSTEM ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE HEADING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. NORTH OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS AGAIN POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TO THE
NORTH WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER...MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR LEFT
BEHIND. A STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY AND WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT TOWARD ARKANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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