Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

NOT MUCH TIME TO TALK TODAY AS THINGS ARE ALREADY ACTIVE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE...AND RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM GRACE COMES
ASHORE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES.

RAINFALL INVOF THE FRONT COULD EXCEED FOUR TO SIX INCHES IN THE NEXT
TWO TO FOUR DAYS. THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS...AS SOME AREAS HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN. ALSO...SOME RISES MAY
OCCUR ON THE BLACK...SPRING...WHITE...AND CACHE RIVERS. THERE COULD
BE SOME MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ON SOME STREAMS AND
CREEKS AS WELL. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD OUTLOOK TO ADDRESS THESE
CONCERNS. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. BIGGEST PROBLEMS I CAN SEE ARE FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

GRACE PROGGED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ABSORB THE FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
TROUGH WILL GIVE THE SYSTEM A PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...
DRYING US OUT FOR A FEW DAYS.

THANKS TO WFO TULSA FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

FCSTID =57
HRO   68  80  67  75 /  70  70  60  60
LIT   71  85  72  84 /  60  60  50  60
HOT   73  85  73  84 /  60  60  50  60
PBF   73  85  73  86 /  60  50  40  60

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-311000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE EXTREME NORTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF ARKANSAS ON SUNDAY.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE FRONT AND TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIME SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WOULD BE
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS ALONG SOME RIVERS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS.

IN PARTICULAR...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE
BLACK...CACHE...PORTIONS OF THE WHITE...AND THE SPRING RIVERS. FLOAT
STREAMS MAY SEE A RISE AS WELL...WITH AN INCREASED FLOW RATE. IF YOU
PLAN TO VENTURE OUT ON BODIES OF WATER DURING THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...USE EXTREME CAUTION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0140 PM    MOUNTAIN VIEW             AR   FLASH FLOODS
08/30/03   STONE                          STREET FLOODING REPORTED
                                          IN TOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0200 PM    HARRISON                  AR   FLASH FLOODS
08/30/03   BOONE                          STREET FLOODING ON THE
                                          NORTH SIDE OF TOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

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