Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

VERY HUMID TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND ELIMINATED ANY CAPS. PW OF 1.85 INCHES
AT LZK LAST EVENING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH LESSER
COVERAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING. WILL NEED TO
KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME
AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. WILL GO WITH
40 PERCENT POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND THURSDAY AND CUT BACK
TO 20 PERCENT DURING THE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. THE WEAK UPPER
TROF DRIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY SO WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT
POPS THEN AS TROPICAL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. MAXES LIKELY WILL NOT
BE AS HIGH AS IN RECENT DAYS AS MOST AREAS WILL GET OFF TO A
COOLER START THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS MAY BE MORE ABUNDANT. ALSO...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BLOSSOM AS THE HIGHEST TEMPS ARE REACHED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX GRIDS INDICATE VALUES EXCEEDING
105 IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY
AS THUNDERSTORMS USHER IN COOLER AIR. THUS WILL NOT CONTINUE THE
HEAT ADVISORIES BUT WILL HEADLINE HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BUT EVOLUTION OF
SYSTEM STILL IN QUESTION. WILL NOT GO TOO CRAZY WITH POPS OR LOWER
TEMPS YET UNTIL THE BEHAVIOR OF THE FRONT BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE MAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY WILL BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AGAIN...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH DRIER AIR AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
MAY MOVE AT A SLOWER PACE THAN INDICATED PRESENTLY...SO TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND COULD CHANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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