Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

SHEAR AXIS HAS LIFTED INTO THE AREA AS PROGGED AND IT HAS RESULTED
IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST IN THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK AS GOOD AS WHAT WAS
ADVERTISED BY MOS. THIS SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY THEN IT WEAKENS AND MOISTURE DECREASES A LITTLE. AM LOOKING
FOR ABOUT AS MUCH CONVECTION SUNDAY AS TODAY...BUT WILL TONE POPS
DOWN TO 40 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH...WITH 30 ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS
AND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL CARRY THE POPS INTO THE EVENING THEN
SEE A DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
ANY TIME IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...SO WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THAT AREA. UPPER RIDGING
INCREASES MONDAY SO FIGURE ON A DECREASE IN CONVECTION BUT WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING...WILL KEEP 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...WILL GO WITH THE USUAL 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SITUATION SETTING UP LATE
NEXT WEEK THAT COULD BRING SOME 100 DEGREE WEATHER TO THE AREA.
STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND NOSES INTO THE AREA. A WEAK
FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REACH NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF ARKANSAS
BEFORE LOSING ITS PUSH. THIS COULD SET AREA UP FOR DRY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MAX HEATING. HOWEVER DUE TO LEAD TIME AND UNCERTAINTY
THAT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE...WILL LEAVE MAX FORECASTS IN MID 90S
FOR NOW. DID NOT INCLUDE POPS FOR NEXT SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE NATURAL
STATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DUE
TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE OVER ARKANSAS AND LIGHT WINDS...WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH.

ALSO...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTH...ALONG WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS...HEAT INDICES WILL
APPROACH 100 DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. IF YOU PLAN TO BE
OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING. THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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