Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SHORT TERM OFFERS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. IN FACT...WHEN
YOUR FORECAST IS AT THE MERCY OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM...IT KIND OF PUTS
THE WORD CHALLENGE IN A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE.

WELL...TO START WITH...OUR FRIEND BILL IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA...AND MOVING NORTH...WITH MAX WINDS AT ABOUT 50 MPH.
THIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...BEFORE THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A
PATH PARALLEL TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS
WOULD PUT THE CENTER VERY NEAR MEMPHIS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
TRACK...BUT MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A TURN TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE PATH. IF THE
TRACK WOBBLES A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LESS OF
A THREAT. WILL AT THIS TIME HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT...AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS FOR
TOMORROW.

ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THE FRONT CURRENTLY STALLED
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.
DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF BILL...THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH...PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND
SOME LIFT AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY TOMORROW...AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL GIVE BILL THAT PUSH TO THE EAST BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS REMNANTS OF BILL HEAD INTO THE APPALACHIANS...WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND BETTER DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. EXPECTING A RETURN TO SUMMERTIME WEATHER...WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED...AND READINGS WARMING BACK
INTO THE 90S.

OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS IN TEMPS...BASICALLY LEFT THE EXTENDED
AS IS.

.COORDINATION...
THANKS TO JACKSON...SHREVEPORT...AND SPRINGFIELD FOR COORDINATION AND
COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.

FCSTID =   57
HRO   84  66  83  68 /  50  40  40  20
LIT   86  70  84  70 /  60  60  50  30
HOT   86  70  85  70 /  60  60  50  30
PBF   85  71  83  70 /  70  70  60  30

.LZK...NONE.

FOR THE LATEST ON TROPICAL STORM BILL...REFER TO BULLETINS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL STORM BILL IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST LATER TODAY AND TRACK NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SECTIONS. THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE
STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DECREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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