Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Little Rock, AR

000 
WGUS74 KLZK 142017
FFSLIT
ARC113-127-142100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR SCOTT 
AND POLK COUNTIES...

AT 310 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPER WEATHER RADAR 
INDICATED THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING FROM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
WALDRON TO 5 MILES EAST OF WALDRON...AND JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 
Y CITY. 

THESE STORMS WERE MOVING LITTLE AND ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF 
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTY ROADS AND LOW-WATER BRIDGES.

MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. 

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
301 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM KARG...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
JUST SOUTH OF KFSM. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PRESENT QUITE A CHALLENGE IN
THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARDS TO POPS AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER.

BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY...AND WILL INTERACT WITH
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. STUCK WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS. UPPER LOW WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
SYSTEMS WILL BE NEARLY IN PHASE WITH EACH OTHER. SHORT TERM MODELS
AGREE IN ONE ASPECT...WOBBLING THE SYSTEM AROUND THE ARKLATEX AREA
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY VERY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF THE SYSTEMS...THOUGH I DO THINK THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS
A LITTLE QUICK TAKING THEM EAST BY TUESDAY. BOTTOM LINE IS WEAK FLOW
ALOFT WILL NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEMS OR THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY TO MOVE
VERY MUCH...WITH THE FRONT MEANDERING OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/
NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH MID WEEK.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH REGARDS TO MODEL QPFS THIS CYCLE.
GFS IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE...AND PER QPFERD IS HAVING SOME FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY
IN MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED LAST NIGHT...WITH FIVE TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME SPOTS OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ANY ADDITIONAL PROLONGED RAINFALL WILL ONLY
ADD TO THE PROBLEMS. ALSO...SEVERAL RIVERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS ARE IN FLOOD...AND MORE FLOODING COULD OCCUR AS A RESULT OF
THE EXPECTED PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. SUCCEEDING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR A POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY SOUTH OF A
MENA TO DEWITT LINE.

AS FAR AS ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WHILE ISOLATED STORMS
COULD BE STRONG...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE RATHER MARGINAL. SPC
ONLY HAS FORECAST AREA IN THE GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR DAYS ONE AND TWO...
AND LOOKING AT THE LATEST DATA...AM IN AGREEMENT WITH THEM.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY REASONABLE WITH THE 00Z RUN. FOR THE
MOST PART...USED A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM....TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AS THE
SYSTEM WILL NOT BE IN ANY BIG HURRY TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LIGHT
AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL DOES APPEAR BY DAY 7...AS EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

FCSTID =   57
HRO   83  63  82  65 /  20  20  30  20
LIT   87  67  86  67 /  30  30  50  30
HOT   85  68  85  67 /  40  40  60  40
PBF   86  67  86  68 /  40  40  60  40

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A FEW STORMS
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WINDS...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED OR LONG LASTING SEVERE
STORMS. RAINFALL IN GENERAL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...BUT THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT
COULD CAUSE BRIEF MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH
OCCASIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED BRIEF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IF AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP
AND SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OR SEVERAL STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
AREAS IN A PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THIS
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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