Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
355 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

LOTS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING. WEAKENING BOW ECHO HEADING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOW WILL ACT AS THE BACK EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN PRETTY MUCH ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING. RAIN WILL NOT END FOR LONG.

LOOKS LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE COMING DAYS.
SYSTEMS ALOFT FROM PLAINS WILL TAP INTO MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS
ARKANSAS...WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL BRING SPOTTY SEVERE WEATHER AT TIMES.
ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES. THIS WILL MAKE
STORMS MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING CERTAINLY
A POSSIBILITY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INCOMING SYSTEMS FOR PLACEMENT
OF FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IF NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...TYPICAL SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WITH LATE NIGHT/MORNING
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY CLEARING/WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID-JUNE...WITH DAYTIME READINGS IN 80S/NEAR 90
WITH MID 60S/LOWER 70S AT NIGHT.

FCSTID =   46
HRO   84  68  83  66 /  60  50  50  40
LIT   88  71  88  71 /  70  40  50  40
HOT   88  71  88  70 /  60  50  50  40
PBF   88  72  88  72 /  70  30  40  40

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST ACTIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL MORE EFFICIENTLY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR IN SOME CASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THIS PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDER WILL MEANDER FOR COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE PATTERN...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPOTTY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS.

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