Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
342 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ACROSS
THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. MOST
OF THE STORMS EARLIER TODAY MOVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS
OF THE CWFA. THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS NORTH AND CENTRAL KEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ESTIMATED IN PIKE COUNTY ON KLZK RADAR IN THE LAST HOUR.

THE WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL WASH OUT TONIGHT. THE
ONLY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WILL BE EARLY IN THE MORNING
AND IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT NORTH OF ARKANSAS.
THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO NORTH ARKANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THIS FRONT
STALLS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER ON THURSDAY...WITH MORE SUN AND SOUTH
WINDS. WILL STAY JUST A BIT COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.

HRO   58  80  58  77 /  10  10  10  40
LIT   63  85  65  81 /  20  20  10  40
HOT   64  85  66  81 /  20  20  10  40
PBF   63  85  67  82 /  20  20  10  40

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH BY THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AS A STORM SYSTEM AND NEW COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NO SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0900 AM    5 N JACKSONVILLE          AR   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   PULASKI                        REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0905 AM    3 W CABOT                 AR   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   LONOKE                         REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT

0910 AM    CABOT                     AR   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   LONOKE                         REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT

0945 AM    BRINKLEY                  AR   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   MONROE                         REPORTED BY MEDIA

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