Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
307 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

WEAK LEE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF CWA WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA WITH A BAY BREEZY IN
THE EASTERN SECTIONS. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRAPING ACROSS THE FA
ATTM. INSTABILITY IS THERE...BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESS WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNMCS. MOISTURE AND SHEAR IS ALSO A BIT LIMITED. MAY BE A
BETTER CHC FOR PCPN IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING.
CONVCTN IS STARTING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON IT. AS FNT SAGS SWD PCPN CHC WL DIMINISH IN THE N OVRNGT. WL
KEEP LOW CHC POPS THIS EVENING IN ALL ZONES AND IN THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO POSSIBLY WASH OUT JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA AND MOISTURE FROM BILL WILL SLOWLY TRY AND PUSH NE
INTO THE REGIONS SO WILL RAISE CLOUDS A BIT AND KEEP LOW POP IN THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY. ND

TUE NIGHT-MON

FORECAST BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN TUE NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MODELS
DIVERGE GREATLY WITH TRACK OF REMNANTS OF BILL AND WHEN ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE GETS HERE. ALTHOUGH OP MODELS AND HPC GRAPHICS SUGGEST
TUE NIGHT WILL BE DRY NEWLY ARRIVED 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE OPPOSITE AS IT SHOWS STATIONARY BDRY LIFTING NORTH WITH BIG SLUG
OF MOISTURE ESPECIALLY SRN HALF OF CWA. KEPT POPS ONLY FAR SW TUE
NIGHT TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBOHRS. FORECAST BECOMES EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN BEYOND WED. AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC DECIDED TO PUT
POPS EVERYWHERE WED NIGHT AND THU AS REMNANTS OF BILL TRACK
SOMEWHERE ACROSS VA. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HIT PRETTY HARD AREAS
SOUTH OF DC AS MID-LVL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH BILL TRACKS JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. HOPEFULLY WILL GET TS BILL OUT OF HERE BY FRI FOR A NICE AND
TOASTY FOURTH OF JULY.

ROSA

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-011000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE ENTIRE AREA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 57 MPH AND HAIL LARGER THAN 3/4 IN DIAMETER ARE
CONSIDERED THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ND

MDZ003-WVZ053-302030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 327 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
WEST OF MOLER CROSSROADS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF SHEPHERDSTOWN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH
430 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
453 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    3N BEL AIR                MD   WIND DAMAGE
06/30/03   HARFORD                        TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. 911 CENTER REPORT.

WVZ051-052-010130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
834 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
PANHANDLE...

AT 834 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
NORTH OF OMPS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF INWOOD AND MARTINSBURG WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 930 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING