Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

SHORT-TERM(TONIGHT-SAT)

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC MOIST AXIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S EXTENDING FROM CHO THRU CJR/IAD AND FDK. LEE-SIDE TROF EXTENDS
FROM W OF MRB THRU SHD AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CURR
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SO WILL
HAVE CAT POPS SIMILAR TO THE LAST TWO DAYS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING AS PWATS AOA 2.0 INS AND
1000-500MB RH IS AT 80%. CANT NEVER RULED OUT SVR IN THE SUMMER
TIME BUT THINK ANY SVR WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST ONE OR TWO EVENTS.

SAT...CDFNT OVR THE GREAT LKS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER NRN ZONES WITH
MORE SHRAS/TSRA AND MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.LONG TERM...SAT NGT AND BEYOND...
CDFNT PUSHES THRU THE CWFA SAT NGT/EARLY SUN...WHICH WL BRING A
RATHER QUICK END TO THE SOPPING WET PATN OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. MDLS
IN GOOD AGRMT AS TO KEEPING SFC RIDGE OVR THE WRN ATL THRU MUCH OF
THE WK. MED RANGE MDLS IN SOME DISAGRMT AS TO THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF NEXT SW TROF TO EJECT OUT OF THE SW CONUS LATE IN THE WK
WITH THE NEXT CDFNT TO APCH WRN ZNS LATE FRI/SAT. ATTM PLAN ON
ADDING CHC POPS TO FRI...BUT LTR SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK THE
THU POPS A BIT. THIS WOULD MORE CLOSELY FOLLOW THE ECMWF...AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE 06Z AVN WHICH FAVOR A SLOWER SOLN WITH THIS NEXT
SYS.

MANNING

.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
     MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
     VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ036>042...VAZ050>054.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-141030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1105 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ROSA

VAZ040-131845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
143 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN RAPPAHANNOCK COUNTY...

AT 143 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SPERRYVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SPOTTERS HAVE
REPORTED TORRENTIAL RAIN AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WITH THIS
STORM. THE COMMUNITIES OF SPERRYVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 245 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING