Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1015 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

WEAKENING MCS MOVING INTO THE NW CWA THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED
THE POPS AND LOWERS TEMPS BECAUSE OF THIS. I HAVE ALSO INCLUDED
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY FF THREAT IN
THE NORTH AND WEST. ALSO THE SOUTH IS GETTING SOME SUNSHINE SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH TO ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWN THERE THIS AFTERNOON. ND

PREVS AFD

FRI AND FRI NIGHT...
MORE INSTAB WITH A TWIST TODAY. ALL BUT SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N
THRU THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SFC FRONT STAYS OVR THE AREA. WITH
NOT MUCH CHGNG...WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSRA. SPC HAS US FIRMLY IN THE SLGT RISK OF SVR CONVTN TODAY.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY CHC OF PRECIP TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WILL
ALSO ISSUE A SVR WX OUTLOOK SPS FOR THREAT OF SVR WX.

AS FOR THE TWIST...MARINE LAYR HAS INVADED THE EASTERN ZONES. ETA
HINTS THAT THIS FEATURE MAY REMAIN OVR THE EASTERN ZONES ALL DAY AND
FRI NIGHT BEFORE RELINQUISHING SAT MORN. THERE IS NOT MUCH BESIDES
THE SUN TO REMOVE THE MARINE LAYER TODAY...AND THE SUN WILL BE OBSCD
BY CLDS FRONT WARM FRONT AND CONVTN. WILL THEREFORE FORECAST THAT TO
BE THE CASE AND WILL LOWR CHC OF TSRA...TMPS...DWPTS FOR THE EAST.

BY 00Z MID LVL FRONT WILL BE N OF THE AREA AND DO NOT SEE MUCH
DRIVING ANY PRECIP IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRI NIGHT...SO WILL
KEEP THE 20 POP IN PLACE FOR AFT 00Z FRI NIGHT.

STRONG

.LATER PERIODS...HEMI PTTN DEPICTS BROAD RDG ACRS SRN CONUS...W/
L/WV RDG ALNG E CST TO RETROGRADE THRU UPCOMING WK AS CUTOFF LOW
ACRS NRN PLAINS ATTM WOBBLES TO CNDN MARITIMES. THIS WL ALLW ABV
NRML TEMPS THIS WKND...AND THEN A RLTV COOL/DRY SPELL TWD MIDDLE OF
NXT WK.

WAVERING WMFNT TO PUSH N OF CWFA SAT AT SFC AND AT H8...PLACING CWFA
IN WRM...HUMID...AND UNSTBL AMS. DESPITE TIMING DIFF BTWN MDLS...
OVRALL SCREAMING MESSAGE IS FOR A MCS TO DVLP ON NOSE OF 40 KT H8
JET...AND PROPAGATE INTO CWFA SAT AFTN AT TIME OF PEAK HTG. INSTAB
PARAMETERS GOOD...LI -4 TO 6/B+ 2000-2500/TT 50/SUBZERO SHOWALTER.
MDL HODOGRAPHS DEPICT DECENT CURV...W/ HELICITY 250-300 AND 25-35
M/S SHEAR. UVV/UPR DIVGNC VRY STRONG...FOR CONTD SUPPORT.  WL STAY
ON HIGH SIDE OF CHC POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN INCRS
LATER IF GOOD CONTINUITY OF THIS FTR CONTS. MAV TEMPS PREFERRED.

BY SAT NGT...ANY ACTVTY SHUD BE TO THE NE OF AREA...W/ IMPENDING
CDFNT STILL TO THE W. BUMPED MIN-T UP A CPL DUE TO DEWPTS.

CFP SUN...LATE PER ETA...MIDDAY PER GFS. ATTM...KEPT LINE OF CNVCTN
BACK CLSR TO UPR LVL FTRS. CWFA NOT IN FVRBL UPR LVL JET QUAD THO
/WE WL BE IN RFQ/. THUS...WUD XPCT LINE OF STRNGR TSRA MORE ACRS
PA/NY. SHUD BE SCT-BKN ACTVTY ACRS AREA THO...GOOD FOR CONTD CHC
POPS.

SHARP H8 TEMP/SFC DEWPT GRDNT SUN NGT WUD INDCT SIG AMS CHG SUN
NGT...W/ APPRO W/NW WND FLOW...ENUF FOR BRZY CONDS. HWVR...MSTR IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALFT WL KEEP A FAIR AMT OF CLDS PRETTY CLOSE TO OUR N.
THUS...FAIR CLDCVR GRDNT...W/ APPRO AREA IN CSTL PLAIN CARVED OUT
DUE TO DWNSLOPE FLOW. GDRL CLRG TAKES PLACE REST OF AREA BY MIDWEEK.
NO CHGS MADE TO TEMPS IN XTNDD.

HTS

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-101000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1145 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE FLOODING
RAINS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... AND LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AS
WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY...SATURDAY...AND AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.

ND

VAZ041-051-091730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1258 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003

...STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FAUQUIER AND CULPEPER
COUNTIES...

AT 1258 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARRENTON TO 4 MILES WEST OF
OPAL TO CATALPA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF CULPEPER...WARRENTON AND BEALETON WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 130 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING