Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)

...SVR TSTM WATCH FOR ENTIRE MD AND NRN VA/DC UNTIL 8PM EDT...

TONIGHT...LATEST RDR IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR HARRISBURG TO CUMBERLAND RACING TO THE SE ABT 40 KTS. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT BUT AREA WAS NOT ABLE
TO RECOVER TOO MUCH FROM MORNING ACTIVITY. THIS LINE COULD INTENSIFY
THIS EVENING AS IT APPROACHES THE DC METRO WHERE TEMPS WERE ABLE TO
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 90 AFTER MORNING RAIN.

IR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER COMPLEX EVOLVING NEAR CHICAGO ATTM. THIS
ONE MAY REACH US PERHAPS IN THE WEE HRS OF THE MORNING IF IT IS ABLE
TO SURVIVE. GIVEN WNW FLOW STORMS LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH MOST THE ACTIVITY REMAINING NORTH OF PETERSBURG
WV /MANASSAS TO ADW LINE.

TOMORROW... SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE MASON/DIXON LINE WITH MORE
STORMS AND CHANCE OF SVR WX.

.LONG TERM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENERALLY FLAT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN CLOSED
LOW OVER CANADA DIGS SOUTH...WITH TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS
BY THE WEEKEND.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SOME DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ON THURSDAY.
WILL MAKE SLIGHT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY DRY FORECAST ON
THURSDAY  WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ADD
GHOST POPS TO GRIDS. EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST/SOUTH EARLY
FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE DEPTH AND TEMPERATURES ON THE INCREASE.

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOME TIMING
ISSUES NOTED WITH THIS FRONT. THE COMPROMISE BRINGS THE FRONT SLOWLY
THROUGH ON MONDAY...WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-271000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER ARE THE
BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS NORTH TO THE
PENNSYLVANIA BORDER...AND THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH...SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM
AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY THIS AFTERNOON.

LFR/MANNING

DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ053-054-261730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1150 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MARYLAND TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WASHINGTON DC METRO AREA
THROUGH 1 PM. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
SMALL HAIL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/LWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
122 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1117 AM    STERLING                  VA   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   LOUDOUN                        NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LOUDOUN
                                          COUNTY EMA.

MDZ002-003-WVZ048>051-055-261930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

AT 2:40 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MORGANTOWN....NORTHEAST TO BEDFORD PENNSYLVANIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 45 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AS THEY REACH
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN MARYLAND...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE COMMUNITIES OF
CUMBERLAND...FROSTBURG...BAYARD...BERKELEY SPRINGS...FORT
ASHBY...KEYSER...MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG...PIEDMONT...RIDGELEY...
ROMNEY AND MATHIAS MAY BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS BETWEEN 3:00 PM
AND 4:30 PM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ROGOWSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
408 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1145 AM    RESTON                    VA   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   FAIRFAX                        A FEW TREES DOWN ONTO
                                          APARTMENT BUILDING.
                                          REPORTED BY FAIRFAX
                                          COUNTY 911.

0340 PM    COUNTYWIDE                MD   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   ST. MARYS                     NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WEST
                                          AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
                                          COUNTY. REPORTED BY
                                          WASHINGTON COUNTY 911.

0345 PM    COUNTYWIDE                WV   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   MINERAL                        NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY MINERAL COUNTY 911.

0400 PM    COUNTYWIDE                WV   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   MINERAL                        NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY BERKELEY COUNTY 911.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR COUNTY NAMES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
414 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1145 AM    RESTON                    VA   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   FAIRFAX                        A FEW TREES DOWN ONTO
                                          APARTMENT BUILDING.
                                          REPORTED BY FAIRFAX
                                          COUNTY 911.

0340 PM    COUNTYWIDE                MD   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   WASHINGTON                    NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WEST
                                          AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
                                          COUNTY. REPORTED BY
                                          WASHINGTON COUNTY 911.

0345 PM    COUNTYWIDE                WV   WIND DAMAGE
08/26/03   MORGAN                         NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY MORGAN COUNTY 911.

0400 PM    COUNTYWIDE                WV   WIND DAMAGE 08/26/03
8/26/03    BERKELEY                       NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          BERKELEY COUNTY 911