Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1110 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

MADE VERY FEW CHGS TO THE ZNS. MAIN BNDRY STILL WELL TO OUR N..BUT
WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON CONVECTION BREAKING OUR ACROSS PA AHD OF
THE FNT. VSBLY STLT SHOWS CLDS HV BKN UP OVER MID ATLC WHICH WL
ALLOW THE LOWER LVLS TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH THE MID ATLC
IS NOT OUTLOOKED WITH HIGH PWATS/LGT WIND FIELD ACROSS AREA WL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FLASH FLD POTENTIAL.

PRODUCTS ALREADY RELEASED.

WOODY

...LONGER TERM...SUN THRU FRI...

COLD FRONT DIRECTLY OVER CWA SUN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED SUN MORN BY
250MB/500MB TROF AND 700MB/500MB PVA. 850MB RH FIELDS SHOW ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND WITH BDRY FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO THE LATE AFT HRS
BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK IN AS BDRY WASHES OUT AND WINDS TURN
NWARD. WILL HAVE 30 POPS CWA WIDE THRU EARLY SUN EVE.

DRY WX EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVHD.
ALOFT...WEAK UL TROF REMAINS AND SINCE FRONT NEVER COMPLETELY PUSHED
THRU ON SUN...SOME MOISTURE LINGERS AS WELL. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN SCT/BKN CLDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

BY TUE...SFC/850MB WINDS TURN E AND SOME UPSLOPE LLRH IS NOTED IN
MTNS. GFS SHOWS WEAK CUTOFF LOW /REMNANT OF OLD UL TROF/ OVER CWA
THRU THU WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO SCT/BKN CLDS. LACK OF FOCUS IN LOW
LEVELS DOESNT LOOK GOOD FOR AFT CONVECTION...BUT WITH WEAK UPSLOPE
SHOWING UP CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT TOPOGRAPHY INDUCED AFT/EARLY
EVE CONVECTION THRU PERIOD. WILL HAVE SILENT 20 POP TUE THRU THU.

BY FRI...GFS SHOWS COLD FRONT AND ASSOC SHORT WAVE OVER N PLAINS
MOVING INTO CWA. GFS HAS A BIAS ON MOVING FRONTS IN EXTENDED PERIODS
EASTWARD TOO FAST SO HAVE A FEELING THIS FROPA MAY BE FORECAST TOO
SOON. ANOTHER SUPPORTING FACT...ECMWF SHOWS FRONT ONLY REACHING
MISSISSIPPI VALLY BY FRI AND KEEPS CWA IN WEAK HIGH PRES ZONE.
WILL TREND LATER WITH PRECIP BY PUSHING 30 POPS BACK TO FRI AFT.

MMARGRAF

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE..NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-
WVZ048>055-170800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1059 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE REGION IS NOT OUTLOOKED AS BEING AT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ABW

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DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-170400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN EASTERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONGEAL INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MARYLAND...EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...WASHINGTON DC...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING THREAT...AS THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY VERY MOIST...AND GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA
REMAIN FAIRLY SATURATED FROM LAST WEEKS RAINS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

ROGOWSKI

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/LWX

MDZ003-161915-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
220 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003

AT 2:20 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEAR SPRING...STATIONARY. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF HAGERSTOWN...HALFWAY...LONG MEADOW AND WILLIAMSPORT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 315 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ROSA/MANNING