Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
710 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

SENT OUT FRESHENED UP ZFP TO REMOVE SVR BOX SRN ZONES. REGULAR
UPDATE BTWN 900 AND 1000 PM. RDH.

PREV DISCS...
-----------------------------------------------------------
SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT-WED)

TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS S/W TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ATTM. THIS IS RESULTING IN RENEWD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSSS THE WRN PART OF OUR CWA. OTHER SHRAS ARE
OBSERVED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE FAR NERN PORTION OF OUR
CWA. 18Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH LI OF -2
AND CAPE OF 711 J/KG. SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK. THINK ANY SVR SHOULD
REMAIN WELL SOUTH IN NC. MAIN THREAT IS LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY
SLOW MOVING STORMS. AFTER STORMS DISSIPATE TONIGHT EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OUT TO THE WEST GIVEN WET GROUND AND
LIGHT WINDS.

WED...ISOLD TSRA STILL POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ROSA

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY):
MODLES HINT THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE EASTERN US
BY DAY 7. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WI THE RIDGE
OVR THE ROCKIES...TROF JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES THRU
THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER RIDGE OVR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FEED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...SHORTWAVES...AND
DAY TIME HEATING WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY SEVEN. NO MAJOR CHGS TO CURRNT EXTNDED
FORECAST. ND

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-061030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
LARGE HAIL IS THE DOMINATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO CLUSTERS PROVIDING
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS BY A FEW HOURS...CENTRAL VIRGINIA MAY
EXPERIENCE MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...DUE TO A MORE SATURATED SOIL
WHEN COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
709 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0655 PM    BURTONVILLE               VA   WIND DAMAGE
08/05/03   GREENE                         A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY GREENE COUNTY
                                          911.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
743 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0721 PM    ARODA                     VA   WIND DAMAGE
08/05/03   MADISON                        A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY MADISON
                                          COUNTY 911.

DCZ001-MDZ009-013-016-VAZ052>054-060200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
748 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE METRO AREA DURING THE MID EVENING...

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EAST OF CULPEPER INTO
STAFFORD COUNTY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREA DURING THE
MID EVENING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING. THE
STORMS HAVE ALSO DOWNED TREES AND PRODUCED HAIL. SOME WEAKENING MAY
OCCUR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

BE ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH WATER COULD DEVELOP IN LOW LYING SPOTS.

RDH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
801 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0715 PM    UNIONVILLE                VA   WIND DAMAGE
08/05/03   ORANGE                         A FEW TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN.

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