Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS STILL NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF AN
APPROACHING SPEED MAX AND FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED.

MODELS INDICATE A ROUND OF CONVECTION TO FIRE AND SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD AND GO WITH A BLEND
OF MAV AND MET TEMPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MARINE: WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC WILL
AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH SCA FOR THIS EVENING.

CPW

EXTENDED. WELL ADVERTISED ZONAL FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THIS WEEK IS
DISSOLVING INTO THE EASTERN US TROF. FRONT IS JUST TO OUR SE WED
NIGHT THEN SMALL LOW WILL BRING IT BACK SLIGHTLY ON THU. FRI SHOULD
BE OUR BEST SHOT AT DRY WX AND SUNSHINE AS THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES
CONTROL. BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY LATE
SAT...CROSSING THRU SAT NTE OR SUN. THAT FRONT OF COURSE STALLS JUST
SE AND FALLS APART. THAT SHOULD ALLOW A PARTLY SUNNY MON AND A BIT
MORE SUN ON TUE.

STRONG

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SCA ANZ531>534-537.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-231000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...MUCH OF MARYLAND...AND THE
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE AIRMASS
IS VERY MOIST AND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY MID AFTERNOON.

CPW/MANNING

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-230000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1135 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...MUCH
OF MARYLAND...AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SOME OF
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. THE AIRMASS
IS VERY MOIST AND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LESSEN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
BETWEEN 3 AND 8 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

MDZ003-WVZ051-052-221930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
253 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

AT 253 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PAW PAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF BERKELEY SPRINGS...PAW PAW...SMITH CROSSROADS...SHADY
GROVE AND CACAPON RESORT STATE PARK WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 3:30 PM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MMARGRAF

MDZ017-222000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
331 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO ST. MARYS COUNTY...

AT 331 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TALL TIMBERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF LEXINGTON PARK...PATUXENT RIVER NAVAL STATION...
ST. MARYS CITY AND PINEY POINT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 4:00 PM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MMARGRAF