Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Baltimore/Washington

July 14, 2003Highland County, Virginia

NWS Baltimore/Washington issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2003, 5:30 PM EDT for Highland County, Virginia. It was in force for 75 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 14, 2003, 5:30 PM EDT (21:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 14, 2003, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 75 min
Issued by: NWS Baltimore/Washington
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Highland County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 409 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 687 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 2:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 2:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW...
AFTN CONVECTION CONTS TO BUBBLE MAINLY OVR THE SHEN VLY. NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY SVR WX...BUT AN ISOLD SVR STORM NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WBZ VALUES LWR THAN PREV DAYS...SO COULD SEE A FEW
HAILERS. STORM MOTION WL NOT BE MUCH WITH LLVL WIND FIELD FAIRLY
WK...SO HVY RAFL ALSO POSS. SHORT WV TROF CROSSES THE AREA THIS
AFTN/EVE...ENHANCING VERT MOTION...AND CONVECTION DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...SO WL ONLY CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THE EVE HRS ACROSS MOST
OF THE FA.

ACROSS THE FAR S...AREA OF UPGLIDE...MOISTURE...AND SOME
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE IN THE F VECTORS SUGGESTS CHC POPS WARRANTED
FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. PLAN ON KEEPING IT AT 30S FOR NOW.

BY TMRW...TROF SWINGS OFF THE CST...AND SHORT WV RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE MID ATL IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYS TO APPROACH ON WED. WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING OVHD...FAIRLY STOUT CAP FLOATS OVER THE AREA...AND
XPCT LTL MORE THAN SOME AFTN CU WITH NO PCPN.

MANNING

CURRNT PNA PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE TROF OVR THE EAST
WILL HOLD ALL THE WAY THRU THE EXTNDED WITH TWO MAIN REINFORCNG
S/WS. THE FIRST ON WED THE SECOND ON SAT. BOTH ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE BUT WARRANT CHC POPS NONE THE LESS...ESP WITH THE RAIN ON
ANYTHING WEATHER THAT WE HAVE HAD THIS YEAR. WILL HAVE NO PROB
STAYING SUMMER LIKE THOUGH WITH TMPS NEAR NORML AND DWPTS STAYING
REASONABLY CLOSE TO 70.

STRONG

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 11:30 AM EDT, 6 hours before

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-151000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...AND ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL. IF A SEVERE STORM WERE TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MOST
LIKELY TIME WOULD BE BETWEEN 2 AND 7 PM. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE OVER THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT AREA VERY
WEAK...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. AS
ALWAYS...SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO PASS ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MANNING

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 14, 4:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
410 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0407 PM    UPPER TRACT               WV   1.00 IN HAIL
07/14/03   PENDLETON                      SPOTTER REPORT OF QUARTER
                                          SIZED HAIL.

Local storm report, Jul 14, 4:46 PM EDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
446 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    1N PETERSBURG             WV   WIND DAMAGE
07/14/03   GRANT                          TREES DOWNED. EOC REPORT

Local storm report, Jul 14, 5:23 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
523 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0522 PM    FISHER                    WV   0.75 IN HAIL
07/14/03   HARDY                          SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY
                                          SIZED HAIL.

Special weather statement, Jul 14, 5:25 PM EDT, 5 minutes before

VAZ027-142200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
525 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

AT 5:25 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HARMONY TO 3 MILES EAST OF
HAWKINSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. RADAR SHOWED THAT THESE
STORMS PRODUCED TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE LAST HOUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH COUNTY...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING ON
ROADWAYS AND FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE COMMUNITIES OF
MOUNT JACKSON AND WOODSTOCK WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
6:15 PM.

ROGOWSKI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Baltimore/Washington issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 6:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Allegany	61 min
Jul 14, 4:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Grant, Pendleton	53 min
Jul 14, 5:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Hardy	59 min
Jul 14, 5:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LWX	Mineral	54 min
Jul 14, 6:13 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LWX	Mineral	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.