Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

.EARLY PERIODS...
FEW TSRA POPPING ATTM IN SWRN CWFA. AS MNTND IN PRVS AFD...THIS WAS
THE AREA MOST SUSEPTIBLE TO DSTBLZTN. FEEL AREA LIKELY TO FILL IN
SOMEWHAT ALNG WMFRNT FOR FOCUS AND LIFT...PLENTY OF MSTR AND DECENT
INSTAB FOR FUEL.

ETA A BIT QUIKER THAN GFS ON TIMING OF WMFRNTL PSG. HWVR...DIFF ON
SENSIBLE WX NIL. PREFER SLOER SOLN...SO GFS NUMBERS GNLY FLLWD.
HWVR...WL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE DEF CATEGORY DUE TO AREAL CVRG
CONCERNS.

CDFROPA TMRW. WUD APPR THAT FRNT TO THE E BFR DIURNAL HTG CAN DO ITS
THING. SLGT CHC WL LIKELY SNEAK INTO ZFP ERN ZNS ONLY...PENDING
COLLAB W/ NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

HTS

XTND...FRI NGT-THU...

SPENT THE MRNG W/ AN HS STUDENT...AND COMMENTING THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN...AS WELL AS VSBL STLT IMGRY...LOOK MORE REMINISCENT
OF APR THAN MID JUL...BUT THEN AGAIN THIS HAS NOT BEEN AN AVG YR
WX WISE HAS IT?

ON FRI NGT XPCTG TO SEE THE CD FNT ABUTTING THE CST...PCPN TO HV
ENDED AND SKIES TO BE IMPROVING. WINDS NEVER MAKE IT ARND TO
NW...BUT NONETHELESS DRIER AIR WL INFILTRATE THE RGN. ITS PRETTY
RARE TO USE THE PHRASE GOOD SLEEPING WX IN JUL...BUT IT SHOULD BE
QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMP WISE STILL NOT LOOKING AT ANY 90 DEG TEMPS THRU THE MID PART OF
NEXT WK. REALLY...IF YOU LOOK OUT TO 240 HRS OF MRF...N AMERICA
GNRLY STAYS LOCKED IN THE WRN RDG/ERN TROF PTTN THAT HAS BEEN
DOMINANT FOR SO LONG.

WL PUT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR AFTN/EVE CONVECTION MON-THU.

WOODY

.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001.

MD...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...
MDZ013>014.

VA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ021...VAZ025>031...
VAZ036>042...VAZ050>054.

WV...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-110800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
222 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS OUTLOOKED
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND PENDLETON COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA AS
HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 57 MPH.

A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY
CAUSE FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ABW

VAZ041-102330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
610 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN FAUQUIER COUNTY AFTER 645 PM...

AT 610 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH A POSSIBLE
TORNADO MOVING THROUGH CULPEPER COUNTY. IF THIS STORM CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY IT MAY AFFECT FAUQUIER COUNTY AFTER 645 PM.

RESIDENTS IN FAUQUIER COUNTY SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

MANNING

MDZ016-VAZ041-052-057-110015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
714 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

AT 714 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WARRENTON TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WEEDONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. DOPPLER RADAR IS ALSO INDICATING STRONG
ROTATION IN SEVERAL STORMS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS IN FAUQUIER...PRINCE WILLIAM...KING GEORGE...AND CHARLES
COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ROGOWSKI

MDZ002-VAZ021-025>027-037-WVZ048>051-054-055-110030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
725 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

AT 7:25 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA MOVING EAST AT 30 MILES PER
HOUR. THIS LINE WILL AFFECT WESTERN MARYLAND...THE EASTERN PAN
HANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN NORTHERN VIRGINIA BETWEEN 8:00
PM AND 10:00 PM. DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ROGOWSKI

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