Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
250 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

.EARLY PERIODS...TSRA AGN DVLPG TO CLOSE TO SAME AREA AS YDA...IN
UNSTBL ENVIRONMENT W/ FVRBL THTA-E RDGG...AND H8-5 LAPSE RATES CLOSE
TO 7C/KM. WUD AGN XPCT SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE EWD INTO
PTMC HIGHLANDS LATE TAFTN/ELY THIS EVNG. AMS PLENTY UNSTBL...W/ WK
VORT LOBE AND GOOD H8 CNVGNC TO PROVIDE FORCING. WUD XPCT OVRALL
WKNG TREND W/ LOSS OF DYTM HTG. BASED ON DEWPTS...WL GO W/ CRRNT
MIN-T FCST...CLSR TO MET.

THTA-E RDG SAGS TO THE SE TMRW AS CDFNT APPCHS. INSTAB PRSNT...AND
WUD XPCT AXIS OF PCPN TO MV SE COINCIDENT W/ FORCING. KEPT LIKELY
POPS AREAWIDE...XCPT CHC SE. HAZY MRNG SUNSHN WL BE FILLED BY DEBRIS
CLDS...THEN CNVCTV LWR LYR IN THE AFTN. NOT MUCH OF A MAXT RNG
OFFERED BY GDNC...AND VALUES ACCEPTED.

HTS

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THRU THU...
WAVE OFF THE SE COAST MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY NE, BUT SECONDARY WAVE
HANGS BACK OVER MID-ATLC STATES INTO SAT.  MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE
EXISTENCE OF THE SECONDARY BUT THEY DISAGREE ON INTENSITY.  AVN IS
THE MOST PESSAMISTIC, ETA AND NGM ARE WEAKER WITH THE WAVE AND
DRIER.  DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL EXTEND THE CHC POPS THRU THE
DAYTIME HRS SAT AND EXTEND THE MSTLY CLDY SKIES THRU SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND MON LOOK LIKE REAL NICE DAYS.  SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF COAST BY
MON EVE AND OVERRUNNING CLDS WILL FOLLOW.  NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING RW/TRW BACK INTO CWA TUE INTO EARLY WED.  CLEARING
BEHIND CDFNT PASSAGE WED AM.

CK

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>031-037>042-050>057-
WVZ048>055-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1248 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TIME OF THE
HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 4PM TO 10PM.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE SHENANDOAH RIVER.

HTS

MDZ002-003-VAZ021-025>031-WVZ048>055-020500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1244 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THE
MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND...WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3/4 INCHES
IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

ABW

WVZ054-011930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
228 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH PENDLETON COUNTY...

AT 228 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF FRANKLIN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE PENDLETON...HARDY COUNTY BORDER. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
FRANKLIN...AND RURAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN PENDLETON COUNTY WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 330 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING