Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 100116
FFSLWX
WVC071-100215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
916 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR PENDLETON 
COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. 

$$
ROSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
310 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY ORIENTATED IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
ZONES.

ETA/GFS BOTH SHOW STRONG AREAS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN BOTH THE WEST
AND EAST. THIS SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS IS STILL HIGH AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
PAST 24 TO 48 HOURS HAS BEEN ISOLATED. THEREFORE DECIDED AGAINST A
FLOOD WATCH. WILL CARRY A 50 POP ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT. WITH THE
AMPLE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MODELS INDICATING SOME DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS EARLY TO
MID DAY SUNDAY...AFTER SOME MORNING FOG AND CLOUDS EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO TEMP GRIDS.

IN THE EXTENDED...

SAME OLD PATTERN INITIALLY. WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NE TO SW
OVR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MID WEEK. THAT WILL MEAN MORE LOWER TO
MID 80S AND MAINLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.  TOWARDS MID WEEK IS WHERE
THERE IS SOME INTEREST. THE 00Z GFS HAD A NICE DRY HIGH DROPPNG OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST THEN OVER THE EASTERN US BY LATE
WEEK. THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH OUR CWA ON WED WITH A NICE DAY IN
STORE ESP FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA. NEW 12Z GFS IS NOT SO QUICK
WITH THE FRONT HOWEVER... WHICH CAUSES CONCERN GIVEN THE
TENACIOUSNESS OF THE PATTERN WE ARE LOCKED IN. IT HAS THE FRONT
STILL OVER THE CWA AT 12Z THU AND STILL STATIONARY WITH THE HIGH
BEGINNING TO SLIDE N OF THE AREA. THIS PROD A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE
00Z GFS SUPER EXTENDED AND THE 12Z GFS AROUND THU MORN. WILL GO WITH
THE REGIONAL CONSENSUS FOR NOW FOR FRI/SAT/SUN WHICH HAS 40 PERCENT
CLD CVR AND NO MENTIONED POPS...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REVISITED BY
THE MIDSHIFT...ESP THU NGHT AND FRI IF THE FRONT REMAINS LONGER.

STRONG

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-100900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS VERY MOIST. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS MAY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CPW/MANNING

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-090400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT ISOLATED FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR STATEMENTS.

STRONG

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-100400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME.

...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT ISOLATED FLOODING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR STATEMENTS.

STRONG

WVZ054-092230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
334 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

AT 3:25 PM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER
ROUTE 33 BETWEEN JUDY GAP AND FRANKLIN. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE
THAT UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THAT AREA. THIS COULD
LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE USED.

ROSA

VAZ025-092330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
630 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

AT 6:30 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
RAIN 2 MILES EAST OF SPOTTSWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF STAUNTON WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 7:30
PM EDT. MAIN THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ROSA