Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 061940
FFSLWX
VAC125-062215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR NELSON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM...

AT 3:40 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW A STATIONARY 
THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER JONESBORO.

RADAR INDICATES THAT NEARLY FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN 
OVER THE WARNED AREA. ANOTHER TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
6:15 PM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN 
INCLUDE MASSIES MILL...JONESBORO...AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF 
LOVINGSTON. THE TYE RIVER...RUCKER RUN...AND THE DILLARD CREEK WILL 
ALL LIKELY EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
RESIDENTS NEAR THESE AREAS NEED TO SEEK THE SAFETY OF HIGHER SHELTER.

$$

ROGOWSKI/STRONG

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 062115
FFSLWX
VAC125-062215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR NELSON COUNTY UNTIL 6:15 PM...

RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY...HOWEVER RAIN 
RELATED PROBLEMS MAY CONTINUE. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATS THAT OVER SIX 
INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE MASSIES MILL...JONESBORO...AND WESTERN 
SECTIONS OF LOVINGSTON THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE LIVING NEAR THE TYE 
RIVER...RUCKER RUN...AND THE DILLARD CREEK NEED TO MONITOR THE RISES 
OF WATER...AND MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR.

THE HEAVY RAIN CAUSED A MUDSLIDE OVER ROUTE 151 EARLIER THIS 
AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER STORM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH MAY DEVELOP NORTHWEST INTO NELSON 
COUNTY BY 6:00 PM...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

$$

ROGOWSKI

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 062217
FFSLWX
VAC125-062315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
615 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NELSON COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE...

RAIN HAS ENDED OVER NELSON COUNTY...AND NO OTHER FLOOD RELATED 
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. DOPPLER RADAR HAD INDICATED 
THAT OVER SIX INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR MASSIES 
MILL...JONESBORO...AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF LOVINGSTON THIS 
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVY RAIN CAUSED A MUDSLIDE OVER ROUTE 151 EARLIER 
IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$

ROGOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
245 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MON

NO SIG CHGS TO CUR FCST PKG THRU MON. TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH
AFTN HEAT AND HUMIDITY PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CHC TSTMS IN
FCST. HAVE PASSED CONV TEMP. MUCH MORE CU THAN YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
STORM CELLS AS YET ARE S OF CHO IN ALBEMARLE AND NELSON. DEW POINTS
OVER SRN CWA ARE IN THE LOWER 70S VERSUS UPR 60S OVER NRN CWA.
STILL...JUST SEEMS TO BE A MATTER OF TIME.

MDLS SEEM TO INDICATE A LTL MORE CLDS ARND TONIGHT...PERHAPS LEFT
OVER DEBRIS FROM AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION. ETA AND GFS HAVE A SHORT
WV MOVING THRU MON AFTN WHICH MAY PROVIDE A LTL MORE LIFT TO GET
THINGS GOING. 40 POP LOOKS GOOD. MOS GUIDENCE CONTINUES TREND OF
FCSTG MAX TEMPS TOO HIGH. WATSON

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THRU SUN...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY. ALL AGREE
THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION TODAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND ALLOW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PROGRESS/DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND
TO COVER THE REGION AGAIN SUNDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID ON TUESDAY.
DEWPOINTS ARE SLATED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH A WEST WIND.
MAV GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AT SOME LOCATIONS WHILE
MET NUMBERS IN THE LOWER 90S. WILL TAKE A BLEND...WITH TEMPS IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE MID 90. THIS COULD PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL AFFECT
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY FRIDAY AS THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE POP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CLIMO. DRY WITH NEAR NORM TEMPS AND
RISING DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY.

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...WATSON
LONG TERM...CPW

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1030 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
NOON TODAY AND 8:00 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS CAPABLE OF DOWNING TREES AND
POWER LINES. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY AND SOME AREAS MAY
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND ROADWAYS WITH
POOR DRAINAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WATSON

VAZ036-037-062000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

AT 305 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM OVER
JONESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING A LOT OF
RAINFALL GENERALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NELSON COUNTY. THE
COMMUNITIES OF SCHUYLER AND WINTERGREEN WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM THROUGH 400 PM. BE AWARE OF THE HEAVY RAIN WHILE DRIVING
THROUGH THIS REGION. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

ROGOWSKI