Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 030756
FFSLWX
VAC003-031045-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
345 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALBEMARLE COUNTY UNTIL 615 AM
   EDT...

AT 345 AM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW VERY HEAVY RAIN STATIONARY
OVER AN AREA JUST SOUTH OF CHARLOTTESVILLE.

RADAR INDICATES THAT 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. ANOTHER HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR 
AND THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ENDING...HOWEVER THE THREAT FROM RAIN 
THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN WILL CONTINUE.

THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN HIT THE HARDEST IS AROUND CARTERS MOUNTAIN. 
THE HARDWARE RIVER AND BUCK ISLAND CREEK AND ALL SMALLER CREEKS THAT 
FEED INTO THEM FROM THE CARTERS MOUNTAIN AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE 
RAPID RISES.

PEOPLE IN THIS AREA SHOULD TAKE ACTION AND GET AWAY FROM SMALL 
CREEKS IN THE CARTERS MOUNTAIN AREA. THIS IS THE AREA IN BETWEEN 
CHARLOTTESVILLE AND KEENE. ROUTE 20 RUNS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF 
CARTERS MOUNTAIN.

$$
STRONG

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 031014
FFSLWX
VAC003-031200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
615 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ALBEMARLE COUNTY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE...

HEAVY RAIN HAS SUBSIDED IN THE FLOODED AREA JUST SOUTH OF 
CHARLOTTESVILLE. THE AREA THAT WAS HIT THE HARDEST WAS AROUND 
CARTERS MOUNTAIN WHICH LIES JUST EAST OF ROUTE 20...SOUTH OF 
CHARLOTTESVILLE. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A FEW HOURS. NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 
THAT AREA IN 24 HOURS.

WATER WILL STILL BE RUNNING HIGH IN THIS AREA. IF YOU ARE TRAVELLING 
IN THE AREA BETWEEN CHARLOTTESVILLE AND KEENE THIS MORNING...BE 
ALERT FOR AREAS WHERE WATER MAY UNEXPECTEDLY COVER THE ROAD. ALSO 
SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED IN THAT AREA DUE TO HIGH WATER.

NEVER DRIVE ACROSS A ROAD WHERE A FLOODED STREAM IS RUNNING ACROSS 
IT. VERY LITTLE FLOWING WATER CAN SWEEP A VEHICLE FROM THE ROAD.

$$
STRONG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2003

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW...

ALL PRODUCTS ALREADY RELEASED.

AS NO PLACE IN THE CWA HAS RECORDED MORE THAN 1.5 INCHES TDA...AND
PCPN..ALTHOUGH STEADY...WL REMAIN ON THE LGT SIDE HAVE OPTED TO CANX
THE FLD WTCH. RDR SHIFT IS EYEING A CELL W/ LGTNG THAT WL ENTER
NELSON CO...BUT CELL LOOKS PROGRESSIVE AND AM NOT XPCTG ANY FLDG FM
IT. HOWEVER WELL KEEP OUR EYES ON IT DURG THE NEXT HR.

OTHER THAN THAT JUST A GRADUAL UPWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WX. LOWERED
THE XPCTD QPFS FOR THU BY QUITE A BIT.

.LONG TERM...TMRW NIGHT AND BEYOND...
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGRMT THRUT THE MED RANGE PORTION OF THE
FCST. CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEVELOP A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVR THE SRN CONUS...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES REMAINING N OF THE MID ATL. THIS PATN SUGGESTS A NORMAL
SUMMERTIME PATN FOR MUCH OF THE PD.

MDLS BRING A WK CDFNT THRU THE CWFA LATE SUN...BUT ATTM...DON/T FEEL
THERE IS MUCH SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR THIS. UPR PATN REMAINS FAIRLY
FLAT...AND SFC RIDGE BEHIND THE CDFNT IS NOT VRY STG. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT CWFA WL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE CDFNT. WL LEAVE
THE FCST DRY AND WARM FOR NOW. DAY TO DAY MAXIMA NOT EXPECTED TO CHG
ALL THAT MUCH...AS LLVL PARTIAL THICKNESSES REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MDLS SHOWING A STRONGER CDFNT TO PUSH THRU ON DAY 7...WITH SOME
DECENT UPR SUPPORT...SO WL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS FOR TUE.

OTRW...REMAINDER OF THE XTND FCST IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...NO OTHER CHGS
ATTM.

MANNING

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-030900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1150 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TODAY THOUGH EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
...CREATING LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND WASHINGTON DC.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL
MEASUREMENTS WILL BE HELPFUL AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ND

VAZ037-030645-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1243 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2003

...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES...

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTESVILLE
IN THE AREA BETWEEN CHARLOTTESVILLE...NORTH GARDEN...AND KEENE.
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR ESTIMATES THAT ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THAT AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT QUITE AS HEAVY AS IT
HAD BEEN.

IF TRAVELLING IN THAT AREA STAY ALERT FOR WATER COVERED ROADS.
RESIDENTS BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS.

STRONG