Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Baltimore/Washington

000 
WGUS71 KLWX 150008
FFSLWX
VAC179-150100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
806 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR STAFFORD COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM...

AT 8:05 PM DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH 
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO STAFFORD COUNTY. THIS 
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ONE TO TWO 
INCHES OF RAIN OVER STAFFORD COUNTY THROUGH 9 PM. STORMS EARLIER 
THIS EVENING PRODUCED ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS HAS LEFT 
THE GROUND SATURATED AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THIS NEXT BATCH 
OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO 
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP 
TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER 
SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$
MMARGRAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
120 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUED FOR ALMOST ENTIRE CWA. GOES DERIVED SOUNDINGS
AND PRODUCTS INDICATE SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES AROUND -7. SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS ALSO INDICATE GOOD
LIKELIHOOD OF WET MICROBURSTS AND ENOUGH MID-LVL FLOW TO PROVIDE
STORM ORGANIZATION. MAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. RADAR
IS STILL DOWN AND RESTORAL TIME IS STILL UNKNOWN. WILL UPDATE
PRODUCTS ASAP.

ROSA

PREVIOUS AFD....

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
GOING TO HAVE TO START PHONING IN THE FORECAST FROM HOME...THIS IS
GETTING RATHER MONOTONOUS. ANOTHER HUMID...STICKY...THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING KIND OF DAY. WITH PRECIP H2O AMOUNTS AGAIN
AROUND 2 INCHES AND DWPTS STAYING AROUND 70 DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY
THERE WILL NOT BE MORE FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY. FOR THAT REASON WILL
COME OUT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL AGAIN LEAVE
OUT LOWR S MD AND THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA SINCE THE COASTL PLAIN SE
OF THE FALL LINE IS MUCH HARDER TO FLOOD. THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT
SW VA WHICH HAS HAD LESS RAIN...AND ALLGNY CO MD AND THE WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR COORD PURPOSES. DAYSHIFT CAN ADD ONTO THIS AREA IF NEC
LATER TODAY.

FLOW DOES SEEM TO TURN A BIT FROM WEAK SW TO WEAK W TODAY SO
HOPEFULLY THAT CAN LIMIT TSRA ACTVTY SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE POPS AS
HIGH LIKLY TODAY INSTD OF THE CATGRCL THAT WE HAD YESTRDY.

SPC CAME OUT WITH ANOTHER SLGHT RISK DAY FOR US TODAY...AGAIN NOT
MUCH CHG FROM THE PAST FEW. INSTAB AGAIN PREVALENT WITH LIS AROUND
-2 TO -4. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HELCTY. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE
PRIMRLY DMG WINDS AND POSBLY SOME HAIL.

COLD FRONT WILL EBB ACROSS THE AREA OVERNGHT WITH WINDS GOING FROM
WEAK WSW TO NW AND EVNTLLY N BY EARLY SUN MORN.

WENT WITH HIGHS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTRDY WITH HIGHS GENRLLY IN
THE MID 80S.

STRONG

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY...WITH
SHEARING SHORTWAVES LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE
OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA NORTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SHORTWAVE OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SHEAR AWAY SOME ENERGY FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE. THIS STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST AND KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TO DEVELOP IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY. THIS PROCESS
WILL HELP THE STALLED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE CWA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DONT BUY THE MODELS BRINGING IN STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. MODEL UPPER AIR PATTERNS SHOW
A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH DOMINATING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ETA/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN ALSO
AGREE THAT REMNANTS OF SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WORKS SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCES TROUGH. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN
SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AND MAY EVEN RETURN NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
REINFORCES THE UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN WITH EACH MODEL...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO
FORECAST SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR
NOW SINCE I THINK THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY.

NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AREA FROM NORTHWEST THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
DOESNT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN CHANGER. INSTEAD...GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN
CANADA...WHICH SHEARS THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST...STALLING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

ROGOWSKI

.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
     MDZ003>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES
     VAZ026>031...VAZ038>042...VAZ050>054.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ051>053.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-151030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT LOWER SOUTHERN
MARYLAND AND THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ROSA

VAZ055-142015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
311 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO STAFFORD COUNTY...

AT 3:11 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF STORCK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF STAFFORD WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 4:15
PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ROSA/MANNING

DCZ001-MDZ009-013-VAZ053-054-142045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
421 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

AT 421 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKVILLE TO TYSONS
CORNER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE COMMUNITIES OF WASHINGTON D.C. ...ADAMS
MORGAN...GEORGETOWN...ADELPHI...ASPEN HILL... BELTSVILLE...
BETHESDA...CHEVERLY...CHEVY CHASE...COLLEGE PARK... GAITHERSBURG...
GREENBELT...LAUREL...NEW CARROLLTON...ROCKVILLE...THE AMERICAN
LEGION BRIDGE...TYSONS CORNER...VIENNA AND ROSSLYN WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 445 PM EDT.

MMARGRAF

WVZ048-049-054-142115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
439 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

AT 439 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF KITZMILLER TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CIRCLEVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE COMMUNITIES OF BAYARD...FRANKLIN...PETERSBURG AND UPPER TRACT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 515 PM EDT.  GO INSIDE WHEN
THESE STORMS APPROACH.

MMARGRAF

WVZ055-142145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
517 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...STRONG STORM MOVING THROUGH HARDY COUNTY...

AT 517 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF BEAN SETTLEMENT TO 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE COMMUNITIES OF MOOREFIELD...LOST RIVER...BAKER...AND MATHIAS
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 545 PM EDT.

MMARGRAF

VAZ041-055-056-142230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
523 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...STRONG STORMS APPROACHING STAFFORD AND FREDERICKSBURG...

AT 523 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF GARRISONVILLE TO 3 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SUMERDUCK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF FREDERICKSBURG AND STAFFORD WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS THROUGH 630 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING

MDZ016-VAZ055-057-142300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
559 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS IN STAFFORD...KING GEORGE AND
CHARLES COUNTIES...

AT 559 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NANJEMOY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
DAHLGREN AND STAFFORD WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 700 PM
EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

MANNING