Flash Flood Warning 106, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
240 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

CORRECTED TO ADD XTNDD DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...(TNGT/WED)...
WX FCST/PTN PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK W/ ISOLD CELLS POPPING UP RANDOMLY
ACROSS THE CWA. WIND FIELD IS VERY LGT AND MAIN THREAT WL BE VERY
HVY RAIN. ALREADY ONE FFW ISSUED FOR XTRM WRN CORNER OF GRANT CO.
RDR OPERATOR WL MONITOR 1 HR/3 HR RA TOTALS CLOSELY.

XPCTG STORMS TO BE ON THE WANE LATER THIS EVE W/ LOSS OF HTG. ONCE
AGN PTCHY OVRNGT FOG SHOULD DVLP...AND THEN A REPEAT OF THIS AFTNS
WX. FEEL THE CHC WL BE DCRSG DURG THE AFTN ALONG THE MD/PA BORDER AS
HIGH PRES BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MID ALTC. TEMPS MU80S E OF THE
MTNS.

WOODY

.LATER PERIODS...THIS CYCLE FCST DOMINATED BY BLDG H5 RDG OVR CNTR
OF CONUS. SFC HIPRES OHD SHUD SUPRESS MUCH OF THE CNVTCV ACTVTY. WL
CARRY LOW END POPS WED NGT TIL ABT MIDNGT OVR FM SHORT TERM SIDE.
THEN...WL HV 20 POPS THU AFTN-EVE XCPT 30S IN THE SW WHERE RDGG WL
BE WEAKEST AND OROGRAPHICS WL GIVE A LTL XTRA BOOST. WNDS WL BE
LGT...BUT WL BCM NWLY THU. THUS...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING COMES INTO
PLAY DUE TO DWNSLOPING. THU MAXT BUMPED UP SVRL...CLOSE TO MAV/FWC
BLEND.

HTS

.EXTENDED SAT-TUE...BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS WILL KEEP PREIOD DRY.
H5 RIDGE OVER HEAD WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE.  A COUPLE OF FRONTS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. H7 RH WILL BE LESS THAN 50 PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

CPW

.LWX...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-130800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1122 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN SOME LOCATIONS SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ABW

MDZ004-122200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
453 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING FREDERICK...

AT 453 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BALLENGER CREEK...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF BALLENGER
CREEK...BRADDOCK HEIGHTS...EMMITSBURG...FREDERICK...NEW MARKET...
THURMONT...WALKERSVILLE AND WOLFSVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 600 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
508 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0450 PM    10SW BAYARD               WV   FLASH FLOOD
08/12/03   GRANT                          NUMEROUS BASEMENTS
                                          FLOODED AND WILSON ROAD
                                          WASHED OUT. LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT REPORT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0506 PM    URBANA                    MD   WIND DAMAGE
08/12/03   FREDERICK                      LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS
                                          TREES DOWN ON URBANA PIKE
                                          NEAR URBANA.

MDZ005-122245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
540 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING WESTMINSTER...

AT 540 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
REESE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF
HAMPSTEAD...MANCHESTER...TANEYTOWN AND WESTMINSTER WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM THROUGH 645 PM EDT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

MANNING

VAZ037-038-050-122300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
600 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY
AND AROUND CHARLOTTESVILLE...

DOPPLER RADAR AT 600 PM SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE AND OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY.
RAINFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

BE ALERT FOR HIGH STANDING WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN
LOW SPOTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO OCCURRING. WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHEAST AND WILL AFFECT
EASTERN GREENE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES AFTER 630 PM.

RDH

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