Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
815 PM CDT FRI 23 MAY 2003

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DRYLINE AND SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ALL CONTRIBUTED
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NE NEW MEXICO AND THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THESE STORMS
ADVECTED EAST IN MEAN FLOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO A
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALTHOUGH IT HAS STRUGGLED TO
DO SO. LATEST BASE VELOCITY FROM KLBB RADAR SHOWS SE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASING WHICH AGREES WELL WITH 18Z RUN OF ETA. WITH INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL JET...STORMS NOW ADVECTING AND/OR PROPAGATING MORE
SOUTHWARD. THE TIME PERIOD FROM 01Z TO 04Z WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM WITH RELATION TO ITS ABILITY TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH SUNSET.
18Z ETA SHOWS DECENT 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO CHANCES OF A
LONG LIVED MCS SEEM REASONABLE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN INCREASING
COVERAGE ON RADAR AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS CONTINUING A SLOW COOLING
TREND. MCS SHOULD TEND TO DEVELOP MORE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
THE BETTER THETAE AIRMASS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXISTS. OVERALL
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER PROBABLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY GET BETTER ORGANIZED COURTESY
OF INCREASING FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK. SHOULD MCS PERSIST...THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL ALSO CONTINUE.

.LBB...NONE.

JW

TXZ021>044-240000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A GUTHRIE TO POST LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. THE
AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS. ONCE STORMS FROM NEW MEXICO MOVE INTO THIS REGION THEY
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.