Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
410 AM CDT FRI MAY  9 2003

DAY ONE...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE KEEPING WINDS
ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRYLINE EAST OF
THE FA THIS MORNING AND LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WELL. APPEARS THE TAIL END OF IT IS ALONG THE BIG BEND
AT 06Z AND RETREATING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.  MODELS INDICATED
THE DRYLINE COULD GET INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWFA. GFS INDICATED A
GOOD AREA OF LIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOW ROLLING PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP. WILL MENTION THE
CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AREAS...MAINLY FM
PADUCAH IN COTTLE COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH STONEWALL COUNTY.

GFS 850-700 LAYER RH INDICATES MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST CWFA...ALBEIT SHALLOW. DURING THE LAST MONTH OUT
HERE IN WEST TEXAS, THIS LAYER HAS WORKED WELL ON THE LOCATION
OF WHERE THE STORMS WOULD DEVELOP. ETA MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE
ON THE QUICK SIDE TO DRY US OUT OF LATE AND IT APPEARS THAT IT
CONTINUES TO DO THE SAME WITH MOISTURE THIS MORNING...AND THAT
IS TO KEEP IT WELL EAST OF THE FA.

WITH TIGHT GRADIENT..LOW HUMIDITIES AND WINDS RUNNING 20 TO 30
MPH OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY. COULD EVEN SEE SOME PATCHY DUST.

FCSTID = XI

DAY 2 THROUGH 7...
FIRE WEATHER MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW THAT EJECTS EASTWARD LATE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF THE
DRYLINE WILL BECOME THE FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THESE CHANCES COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO RIDE WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE UK/ECMWF MODELS BRINGING A
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
LATEST GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS DUE TO A MUCH STRONGER
TROUGH DEPICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN US. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WE WILL
KEEP THE FRONT AND DRYLINE A FACTOR THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUD COVER THAT CAN
DEVELOP EACH MORNING BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE WE WILL NOT
BE FAR FROM AVERAGE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY PARTICULAR
SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED.

FCSTID = MM

FRIONA      86 53 82 44 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA       87 56 83 47 / 00 00 00 00
LUBBOCK     90 56 86 50 / 00 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD  91 57 87 51 / 00 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   94 58 86 54 / 10 10 00 00
ASPERMONT   94 61 92 56 / 20 20 00 00

.LUB...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR TXZ021>037-039>042.
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY.

TXZ021>044-091630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A HIGH
FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
RED FLAG WARNING PRODUCT ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE AT 430 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THESE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

POSTPONE ALL OUTDOOR BURNING. BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL TO AVOID STARTING
WILDFIRES...AND BE SURE TO PROPERLY EXTINGUISH ALL SMOKING MATERIALS.