Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING EAST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON
DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SAME AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. NOTICEABLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER OVER THE FA
THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME ACTIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PREVIOUS
FORECAST HANDLES THIS SCENARIO FAIRLY WELL.

FCSTID = 09

FRIONA      68 38 69 39 / 10 20 00 00
TULIA       71 38 71 39 / 10 20 00 00
LUBBOCK     77 42 73 45 / 10 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD  76 43 73 44 / 10 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   81 46 74 46 / 20 20 00 00
ASPERMONT   82 49 75 48 / 50 00 00 00

.LUB...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 AM
       TXZ025-026-030>032-036>038-041>044.

TXZ021>044-190500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
858 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF
BROWNFIELD TO PLAINVIEW TO SILVERTON LINE.  THIS SLIGHT RISK AREA
WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND NOW INCLUDES
LUBBOCK.

AT MID EVENING THE DRY LINE WAS PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE DRY LINE TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TXZ025-026-030>032-036>038-041>044-190900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1005 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 128 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES ON THE SOUTH PLAINS...LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...

HALL... CHILDRESS... FLOYD... MOTLEY... COTTLE... CROSBY...
DICKENS... KING... LYNN... GARZA... KENT AND STONEWALL.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS... CHILDRESS... FLOYDADA...
MATADOR... PADUCAH... CROSBYTON... SPUR... GUTHRIE... TAHOKA...
POST... JAYTON AND ASPERMONT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA.

TXZ025-026-030>032-036>038-041>044-191300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
118 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 129 UNTIL 800
AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS:

COTTLE                CROSBY                DICKENS
GARZA                 KENT                  KING
MOTLEY                STONEWALL

IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS:

CHILDRESS             HALL

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CHILDRESS...CROSBYTON...DICKENS...
GUTHRIE...JAYTON...MATADOR...MEMPHIS...PADUCAH AND POST.