Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

.SHORT TERM...
AIRMASS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
WITH TOWERING CUMULUS FIELD BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...
CONVECTION BUBBLING MORE ACTIVELY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THAT HAS TRAJECTORY TO EVENTUALLY WORK INTO THIS AREA
DURING THE EVENING. ADDED A BIT MORE GRADIENT TO THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM HIGHER IN THE SOUTHWEST TO A BIT LOWER IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST. RETAINED MENTION OF SEVERE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
CLOSE TO THE SPC DEPICTION AND MATCHING CLOSE TO THE LATEST SURFACE
NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE BUOYANT ENERGY DEPICTIONS. CAPES NEARING 1500
J/KG IN THE SOUTHWEST AT MID AFTERNOON WHILE NEGATIVE ENERGY REMAINS
BELOW -40 J/KG OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES HELD LONGER IN THE
STRATUS TODAY. SURFACE FIELD SHOULD TRANSITION FROM LOW LEVEL
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE JUST A BIT TUESDAY...BUT FAVORING THE GFS
DEPICTION OF APPROACHING SURFACE SATURATION AGAIN BY LATE TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS THIS MORNING.
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKER TUESDAY AS LEE TROFING UNDERWAY WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. RETAINING LOW POPS AGAIN TUESDAY...
MAINLY WESTERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL INTENSITY OF STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FORECAST CYCLE CONCERNING THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST. IN LOOKING AT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NORA INTERACTING
WITH THE UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA...DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF THIS WILL
BE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS OR IF SOMETHING WILL
ACTUALLY PRECIPITATE. HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO MAKE MANY CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WHERE IT APPEARS THAT MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT LEAST A
CATEGORY WARMER. THE GFS IS THE ODD MAN OUT KEEPING THE
COOLER...CLOUDY AND POSSIBLY RAINY SCENARIO FOR WED AND THU. THE
LONG RANGE GFS SWITCHED ITS THINKING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
CONCERNING THE NEXT FRONT TO AFFECT THE AREA. WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES
ATTM HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES THROUGH THE
MODELS AS THE TIME IN QUESTION APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA      54 79 56 78 / 40 30 30 30
TULIA       56 81 57 78 / 30 30 30 30
PLAINVIEW   57 81 57 79 / 30 30 30 30
LEVELLAND   57 81 58 79 / 40 30 20 30
LUBBOCK     57 82 59 79 / 40 30 20 30
BROWNFIELD  58 82 60 81 / 50 30 20 30
CHILDRESS   57 84 62 79 / 20 20 30 30
SPUR        59 84 62 81 / 30 20 20 30
ASPERMONT   61 86 64 82 / 30 20 20 30
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR TXZ027-028-033>035-039>042.
&&

FCSTID = 05/09

TXZ021>044-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW INTERACTS WITH UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING WEAK
DISTURBANCE. INCREASING SUNSHINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW JUST ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TXZ027-028-033>035-039>042-070300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 936 FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT AND INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

BAILEY... LAMB... COCHRAN... HOCKLEY... LUBBOCK... YOAKUM... TERRY...
LYNN... GARZA.

SOME COMMUNITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH ARE...

MULESHOE...  LITTLEFIELD... MORTON... LEVELLAND... LUBBOCK...
PLAINS... BROWNFIELD... TAHOKA AND POST.

HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALONG AND 80 MILES EAST AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSWELL NEW MEXICO TO 80 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF SANDERSON TEXAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

JW