Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
359 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

DAY ONE...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPLODE ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MCS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR ABILENE. ALTHOUGH
MAIN SHOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THIS VICINITY THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS MCS
HAS SPAWNED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN MOVING WEST FROM NEAR CROSBYTON
TO LAMESA. MAIN PROBLEM FOR STORM INITIATION IS THAT SFC TEMPS HAVE
REMAINED TOO COOL THRU MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOCATION THAT BEARS
WATCHING WILL BE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LATEST MESOETA STILL
HINTING AT PRECIP IN THIS AREA THIS EVENING THEN POSSIBLY SKIRTING
ACROSS THE NE CWFA. APPEARS THAT BEST SHOT OF STORMS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION MAY COME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT CONVECTION
OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST.

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND H50 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING THE DRYLINE WEST OF THE AREA.
CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN WARRANTED WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS IN THE
AREA...WEAK IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST FLOW...AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SEVERE STORMS ALSO A POSSIBILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN
PLACE. SEE SWODY2 FOR MORE INFO. FCSTID = 21

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR OVER THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT. APPEARS ACTIVITY MAY
HUG THE MOUNTAINS MORE SO THAN TODAY WITH WESTERN ZONES PERHAPS
HAVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAN EASTERN...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
AT THIS POINT.

UPPER LOW THEN DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF RUN TO RUN VARIATION ON LOCATION. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST IT WILL
BE FURTHER EAST OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS MAY
HASTEN WARMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME A COOL
AND DAMP NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL TEMPERATURE CLIMB. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GRADUALLY ENDING BY MONDAY AS FLOW SHOULD BECOME TOO
NORTHERLY TO MOVE CONVECTION OFF THE ROCKIES. RIDGE PROXIMITY BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS PROBABLY TOO MUCH WARMING IN MID
LEVELS FOR CONVECTION. SO WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS FOR A DRY
PERIOD.  MCQUEEN/05

FRIONA      61 82 60 84 / 40 30 40 20
TULIA       64 81 61 84 / 60 30 40 20
PLAINVIEW   65 82 62 85 / 50 30 40 20
LEVELLAND   64 85 63 85 / 40 30 30 20
LUBBOCK     65 84 63 86 / 40 30 40 20
BROWNFIELD  65 86 64 86 / 40 30 30 20
CHILDRESS   66 84 65 88 / 60 30 40 20
SPUR        67 84 66 87 / 60 30 40 20
ASPERMONT   67 84 66 88 / 60 30 40 20

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-140000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY EAST OF A DIMMITT
TO MORTON TO BROWNFIELD LINE.

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HOLDS IN ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE WIND STRUCTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW MOVING. THIS COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A COLD FRONT
IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TXZ021>023-027>030-033>036-039>042-140400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
610 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 537 UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS:

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS:

BAILEY         COCHRAN          CROSBY
FLOYD          GARZA            HALE
HOCKLEY        LUBBOCK          LAMB
LYNN           TERRY            YOAKUM

IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS:

CASTRO          PARMER          SWISHER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BROWNFIELD...CROSBYTON...DENVER CITY...
DIMMITT...FLOYDADA...FRIONA...LEVELLAND...LITTLEFIELD...LUBBOCK...
MORTON...MULESHOE...PLAINVIEW...POST...TAHOKA...AND TULIA.