Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
246 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

DAY ONE...
A WEAK 5H TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TOWARDS WEST TX. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN BRANCH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST NE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY BE REACHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND THE TRANS PECOS REGION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
HOBBS TO WINK TO MARFA LINE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND EXPAND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA THIS EVENING. I WILL KEEP
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
CWFA. HOWEVER...MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THE INITIAL
STORMS MAY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWFA AND CAUSE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...THUS POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. THE INITIAL STORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL BE HIGH BASED SINCE T-TD DEPRESSIONS
WILL BE ABOUT 30 DEG. THE PRIMARY THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS. AS THE STORMS MOVE
EAST INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
COUNTIES THEY MAY INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
THE SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND
MIDNIGHT...I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TOMORROW THE DRYLINE MAY MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CWFA.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL HELP TO INITIATE LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. I WILL PLACE
20 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA IN CASE THE DRYLINE POSITION IS
FARTHER WEST THAN FORECASTED. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
MODELS SHOW UPPER FLOW TO BACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS BAJA LOW OPENS...A FEW DISTURBANCES TO BE EJECTED NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FA. DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN SOMEWHAT AND GET A PUSH EAST AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. MODEL CAPES 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ADVERTISED AND
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
WITH STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SEE
SPC (SWODY2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DRYLINE THEN TO SLOSH BACK AND
FORTH REST OF THE WEEK...THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

LATEST GFS INDICATES A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW
TO GET CUT OFF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS
BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP LEAVING US UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST FLOW...WILL LIKELY SEE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO WILL HAVE A WEAK FRONT
FLIRTING WITH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND THUS ANOTHER AREA TO
FOCUS ON FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

FRIONA      59 90 63 92 / 30 20 20 10
TULIA       64 91 64 92 / 40 20 20 10
LUBBOCK     65 93 67 93 / 40 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD  65 94 66 94 / 40 20 20 10
CHILDRESS   69 93 67 93 / 40 20 20 20
ASPERMONT   69 94 68 94 / 40 20 20 20

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-100000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS AS THE DRY LINE REMAINS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A THREAT FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY.
THEN ON WEDNESDAY THE DRY LINE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT
THE THREAT AREA TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH BOTH DAYS TO BRING A
SLIGHT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TXZ021>044-100300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
538 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS:

BAILEY                COCHRAN               CROSBY
DICKENS               FLOYD                 HALE
HOCKLEY               LAMB                  LUBBOCK
MOTLEY

IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS:

BRISCOE               CASTRO                HALL
PARMER                SWISHER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ABERNATHY...CROSBYTON...DICKENS...
DIMMITT...FLOYDADA...FRIONA...HALE CENTER...LEVELLAND...
LITTLEFIELD...MATADOR...MEMPHIS...MORTON...MULESHOE...PLAINVIEW...
QUITAQUE...SILVERTON...SLATON AND TULIA.

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