Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2003

DAY ONE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION NOW UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WITH NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
STORMS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA BY MID
EVENING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS HAVE OFFSET
AFTERNOON WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM IN THE MID 70S. STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ATTM AND TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING. LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE
WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AND GENERATE ANOTHER MCS. THIS
FEATURE TO THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL A THREAT IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER. WITH GROUND
NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO AGAIN MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND WITH PRECIP WATER RUNNING ABOVE 1 INCH LIKELY TO SEE AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND THIS TO
HELP IN DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES AGAIN POSSIBLE. MESO-ETA AGAIN APPEARS
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. THEN ON FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SOME
DRYING... BUT WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE FEEL WE WILL STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF POPS
IN FORECAST ON FRIDAY. FCSTID = XI

DAY 2 THROUGH 7...
CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. UPPER FLOW STILL FAVORABLE TO BRING THINGS OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS LONG AS AREA IS NOT TOO STABLE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS
MCS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS THE DRYLINE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BECOME A FACTOR. MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOPES ARE THAT
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
SO THAT RAIN CHANCES CAN BE LOWERED FOR SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE THEN
BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
MUCH LOWER AND HAVE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES TO 10 PERCENT. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM
THE 70S ON SUNDAY INTO THE 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND AROUND 90 BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FCSTID = MM

FRIONA      51 76 56 81 / 80 30 30 20
TULIA       53 75 56 81 / 80 30 30 30
LUBBOCK     55 77 59 86 / 80 30 30 30
BROWNFIELD  57 78 61 88 / 80 30 30 30
CHILDRESS   58 75 58 83 / 80 40 30 30
ASPERMONT   60 77 61 89 / 80 40 30 40

.LBB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT TXZ021>044.

TXZ021>044-052200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS
STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
EVOLVE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FLOODING

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TXZ021-022-027-028-033-034-039-040-060200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
UNTIL 900 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN TEXAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST TEXAS:

BAILEY                COCHRAN               HOCKLEY
LAMB                  TERRY                 YOAKUM

IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS:

CASTRO                PARMER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BROWNFIELD...DENVER CITY...DIMMITT...
FRIONA...LEVELLAND...LITTLEFIELD...MORTON...MULESHOE AND PLAINS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TXZ021>044-060600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
812 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 484 IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 484 UNTIL 100 AM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...BAILEY...
LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...COTTLE...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...
LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...GARZA...
KENT AND STONEWALL.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.