Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
255 PM CDT SUN 01 JUN 2003

DAY ONE...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS
WITH SEVERAL FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER.
WARM FRONT NOTED OVER PERMIAN BASIN IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD TOWARD
THE SOUTH PLAINS. DRY LINE HAS PUSHED EWD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS ATTM.
ALSO CIRCULATION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE SE NM MOVG INTO
WEST TEXAS...AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS COLORADO TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
TODAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON ESTIMATES OF CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG CENTRAL
SOUTH PLAINS. WIND SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...AND THE FACT THAT MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE
IN DAY AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NW...SHOULD SEE A FEW
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THIS BEFORE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS LATE AND MOVES SE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MORE OF A WIND THREAT. CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE
LIKELY OVER ALL BUT SW ZONES...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

COULD SEE ONGOING ACTIVITY EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL
DIMINISHING. FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH QUIET DAY EXPECTED WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AND NW
FLOW RESUMING IN WAKE OF SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE. MAY BE A LITTLE
COOLER TOMORROW...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 80S.

FCSTID = 06

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PERMIAN
SOUTHERN BASIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BEGGING RETURN TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL DRIVE A FEW  WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY MORNING INTO  FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
AND WILL THUS CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FCSTID = 08

FRIONA      60 85 59 85 / 60 10 30 20
TULIA       61 85 61 84 / 70 10 30 30
LUBBOCK     62 87 63 88 / 60 10 30 30
BROWNFIELD  63 87 63 88 / 50 10 30 30
CHILDRESS   64 86 64 85 / 70 10 30 30
ASPERMONT   66 88 66 87 / 60 10 30 30

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-020000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1123 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL PROVIDE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THESE CONDITIONS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AS THE DRYLINE
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 27
CORRIDOR. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TXZ021>044-020200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 456 IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 456 UNTIL 900 PM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES.

MOTLEY...COTTLE...FLOYD...HALE...BAILEY...LAMB...KING...DICKENS
...CROSBY...LUBBOCK...HOCKLEY...COCHRAN...KENT...STONEWALL...
GARZA...LYNN...TERRY...YOAKUM...PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE
...CHILDRESS AND HALL

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.