Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CST SAT 05 APR 2003

DAY ONE...
ACTIVE SHORTWAVE KICKING TOWARDS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS OUT OF THE
MOJAVE DESERT WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW AIDING IN MOISTURE RETURN
AND BEST FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...SMACK DAB IN MIDDLE OF THE TORNADO
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM. THIS IS TAPPING INTO SBCAPES
ON ORDER OF 2000 J/KG AND WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 200 OR
MORE SUPPORTING. CYCLIC SUPERCELL ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF AREA HAS
HISTORY OF TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZED HAIL.

MOST OF REMAINDER OF AREA CURRENTLY QUIET WITH LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NOTED
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SO FAR NO LIGHTNING NOTED...BUT TIGHTENING NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE
GRADIENT SUGGESTS WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR MOST
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT SURE YET
HOW EARLIER CONVECTION OUTFLOW WILL INTERACT THIS AREA...BUT SEEMS A
SAFE BET THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAINTAINED IF NOT
INCREASED.

SURFACE TROF SHOULD KICK EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER
SOUTHWEST COMPONENT THAT WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BORDER ON WINDY CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY AND MAY LIFT A BIT
OF BLOWING DUST INTO THE AIR...BUT CONVECTIVE THREAT AT LEAST WILL
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO FOLLOW INITIAL EJECTING SOUTHWEST
SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN A
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE APPROACHING IN NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EXPECTED TO SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ALONG WITH A SHARPER
SURFACE COLD FRONT. PHASE SHIFT BECOMES A CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING IN NORTHWEST
ZONES. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY MORNING AND LET LATER SHIFTS
RE-EVALUATE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EJECTS EAST OF AREA...SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION
FROM THAT POINT ON.

COLD TROF ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
QUITE CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT LEAST...THEN LOOKING FOR A
QUICK RECOVERY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH INITIAL RIDGING
ALOFT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

MCQUEEN / 05

FRIONA      39 66 34 60 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA       40 70 35 58 / 00 00 00 00
LUBBOCK     43 72 37 64 / 00 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD  44 72 40 68 / 00 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   44 75 39 59 / 30 00 00 00
ASPERMONT   46 78 46 67 / 30 00 00 00

.LUB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-060600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
728 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING
PLAINS...EAST OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS TO DUMONT TO ASPERMONT. LARGE
HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...EAST OF A LINE FROM
DIMMITT TO LITTLEFIELD TO ODONNELL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT
WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND STRETCHED INTO THE
SOUTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A DRYLINE WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
ASPERMONT TO EAST OF ABILENE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

TXZ021>044-060600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO ADD BRISCOE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1035 PM CST SAT APR 5 2003

THE TORNADO WATCH IS CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES.

HALL...FLOYD...CROSBY...GARZA...BRISCOE

THE TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

MOTLEY...COTTLE...KING...DICKENS...KENT...STONEWALL AND CHILDRESS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1101 PM CST SAT APR 05 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0305 PM    12 SW ASPERMONT           TX   FX TORNADO
04/05/03   STONEWALL                      TORNADO JUST SOUTH OF
                                          DOUBLE MOUNTAIN

0320 PM    1 E ASPERMONT             TX   1.00 IN HAIL
04/05/03   STONEWALL

0322 PM    2 E ASPERMONT             TX   1.50 IN HAIL
04/05/03   STONEWALL

0327 PM    5 S ASPERMONT             TX   3.00 IN HAIL
04/05/03   STONEWALL

AC

TXZ021>044-060630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1205 AM CST SUN APR 6 2003

...TORNADO WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT IS NOW EXPIRED. HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.