Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2003

DAY ONE...
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE PRIMED FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LOCATED NW-SE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
PERHAPS ENHANCING BAROCLINICITY OVER THIS REGION. BEST INSTABILITY
RESIDES IN NEARLY SAME AREA AS YESTERDAY FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS IN THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. LAPS
INDICATING CAP WEAKENING ALONG THIS AXIS WITH BEST SURFACE BASED
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AREAS INTO NEW MEXICO AND THEN TRACK SEWD ALONG INSTABILITY
AXIS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LOW LEVEL TURNING...INCREASING 500 MB
WINDS...AND AVAILABLE CAPE ALL SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY BOUNDARIES ON THE
MESOSCALE...WITH ETA AND GFS BOTH SUGGESTING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING LATE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT TOWARD WESTERN OK...OR PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. WILL GO WITH 50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT EVERYWHERE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY NORTHEASTERN ZONES. GOOD CHANCE FOR
ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDER THURSDAY MORNING EAST/NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER
BOUNDARY DRIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS IN
AGAIN TOMORROW. CONVECTION MAY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW WITH A BREAK IN THE ACTION...BUT WITH SIMILAR AIRMASS IN
PLACE...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN AGAIN. TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR
THURSDAY...WITH COOLER 70S OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE.

FCSTID = 06

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SSE OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
WEEKS END. ETA IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
SHORTWAVE VERSUS SLOWER DEEPER AVN. IN ANY EVENT...PASSAGE OF WAVE
EXPECTED TO DISLODGE A FAIRLY COOL AIRMASS /CLOSE TO 1028 MB SFC
HIGH/ OUT OF SWRN CANADA ON FRI...REACHING WTX BY SAT AFTN OR SAT
EVENING. TIMING OF SAT/S COLD FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION CONSIDERING
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. ETA
INDICATING COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING IN THE NRN ZONES BY 84 HRS
/SAT EVENING/ WHILE THE WAS AVN LAGGING BY ALMOST 12 HRS /SUN
MORNING/ ...DIFFERENCES MOST CERTAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO TIMING/STRENGTH
OF ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS EACH AFTN AND
EVENING APPEARS WARRANTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
AS LATE AS EARLY SUNDAY UNTIL COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLES
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FCSTID = 02

FRIONA      58 78 51 76 / 50 50 50 30
TULIA       59 77 53 74 / 70 70 50 20
LUBBOCK     63 81 57 77 / 50 50 30 20
BROWNFIELD  66 83 58 79 / 50 50 40 20
CHILDRESS   60 78 56 74 / 70 70 40 20
ASPERMONT   66 82 60 77 / 50 50 30 20

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-050000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSED BY THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT
THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG
AND NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES MAY BECOME SEVERE BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS FAVORABLE FOR
THE GENERATION OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG ANY OF THE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. THIS AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TXZ021>024-027>031-033>044-050800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
909 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479 IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 479 UNTIL 300 AM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...BAILEY...LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...
MOTLEY...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...GARZA...KENT AND STONEWALL

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

TXZ021>024-027>031-033>044-050700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
922 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479 IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 479 UNTIL 200 AM CDT. THIS WATCH INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

PARMER...CASTRO...SWISHER...BRISCOE...BAILEY...LAMB...HALE...FLOYD...
MOTLEY...COCHRAN...HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS...KING...
YOAKUM...TERRY...LYNN...GARZA...KENT AND STONEWALL

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE
TO THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.