Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
145 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL MO LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
STOPPED DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. SHORT WAVE MOVG ACRS ALONG WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION TRIGGERING THE STORMS. BELIEVE THIS WILL ALL MOVE EAST
WITH TIME LEAVING FRI AM DRY. MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE
TO DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH ANY AM POPS DEPENDING ON PROGRESS OF
STORMS. OTHERWISE MDLS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL
PATTERN. ETS IS PUSHING THE GREAT LAKES LOW FURTHER SOUTH WHICH MAY
BE OVERDONE. FROM WHAT I HAVE SEEN THE AVN HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE TRACK. HOWEVER THE AVN HOLDS ONTO PRECIP LONGER. PREFER THE
ETA SOLUTION OF SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S ON SAT. 850 MB
WIND SWINGS AROUNG TO NRLY BY 18Z ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD
PUSH PRECIP S. MDLS HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME POP UP
DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW, BUT WILL
KEEP CURRENT DRY FCST RUNNING SINCE I WOULD NOT INSERT MUCH MORE
THAT A CHANCE POP ANYWAY. BEYOND THAT NW FLOW AT VIRTUALLY ALL
LEVELS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MILD AND DRY. AVN PRODUCES SOME WARN AIR
ADVECTION PRECIP FOR TUE INTO WED ACRS SW MO AND TRIES TO MOVE IT
NE. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FCST RUNNING AND LET ANOTHER SET OF
MODLE RUNS GO TO SEE HOW THIS PREGRESSES. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS
FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.IL...NONE.

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
915 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS.  LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 IN ILLINOIS AND INTERSTATE 44 IN
MISSOURI. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT...
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LSX (ALL LOWER CASE)

PEDIGO